January 5, 2013


Based on Friday’s grosses, Weekend #1 of 2013 is on pace for $124 million, very much line with the comparable weekend in previous years.  Texas Chainsaw 3D is opening somewhat better than forecast ($22.5 million versus our forecast of $17.8 million), while Django Unchained continues to perform solidly.

In limited release, The Impossible is stronger than forecast ($2.5 million versus $1.4 million forecast) — the estimated $4,371 per theater weekend average at 572 theaters is much better than forecast but still pretty soft.  Promised Land is on track for $3.85 million this weekend, slightly above our forecast ($3.1 million) but still floundering with a $2,297 average at 1,676 theaters.  At only 60 theaters, Zero Dark Thirty is looking like a very good $43,333 per theater for the weekend (an estimated $2.6 million for Friday-Sunday, which would bring its total to $4.3 million through Sunday).

Weekend 1: January 4-6, 2013 ($ millions)
Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast Early Weekend Estimate Actual Friday Gross Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj.
Texas Chainsaw 3D LG [17.8] 22.5 10.2 54
Django Unchained Weins [17.5] 19.8 6.2 175
The Hobbit WB [19.8] 17.5 5.2 295
Les Miserables Uni [15.1] 16.3 4.9 145
Parental Guidance Fox [9.8] 10.3 3.1 85
Jack Reacher Par [8.4] 9.4 2.9 95
This Is 40 Uni [7.8] 8.7 2.7 80
Lincoln Dis [5.5] 5.4 1.6 160
The Guilt Trip Par [4.4] 4.7 1.5 45
Monsters, Inc. 3D Dis [3.8] 3.9 1.1 40
Promised Land Fox/Uni [3.1] 3.8 1.3 n/a
Silver Linings Playbook Weins [3.1] 3.6 1.1 70
Zero Dark Thirty Sony [—] 2.6 0.8 n/a
The Impossible Summit [1.4] 2.5 n/a

Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend.  The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets).  The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column).  The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America.  A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.


In case you missed them, click to see this week’s Weekend Predictions.


Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $124 million total Friday-Sunday, right on target with previous years:  down 1% from the average comparable weekend the last four years and down 2% from the same weekend last year.

 WEEKEND #1 ($ millions)
Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only)
2013 $124 Texas Chainsaw 3D $22.5, The Impossible $2.5
2012 $126 The Devil Inside $34, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy $5.5
2011 $99 Season of the Witch $11, Country Strong $7
2010 $149 Daybreakers $15, Leap Year $9
2009 $128 Gran Torino $29, Bride Wars $21, The Unborn $20
Avg 2009-12 $125

Check back tomorrow for more complete Weekend Studio Estimates based on Saturday’s actual box office, as well as the International Box Office report.

About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.