Based on Friday’s grosses, weekend #28 of 2014 looks like $134 million for the top 12 films Friday-Sunday, 30% below the norm for this weekend and very close to our forecast ($135 million).
Opening at 3,967 theaters, Dawn of the Planet of the Apes from 20th Century Fox grossed $27.7 million through Friday and is on track for a $70.0 million opening weekend (very close to our $69.0 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast). The film is pacing toward a three-day average of $17,600 per theater for the weekend (well above the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years). Critical sentiment is very strong (91% positive overall and 86% positive with top critics). Dawn of the Planet of the Apes is headed for $202 million total domestic.
Transformers: Age of Extinction is headed for $16.6 million this weekend (down 57% from last weekend and slightly below our $17.5 million forecast). The total domestic outlook for the latest Transformers has been adjusted down to $249 million. Tammy is headed for $13.1 million this weekend (down 39% from last weekend but comfortably above our $10.8 million forecast). The total domestic projection for Tammy has been adjusted up to $90 million. 22 Jump Street is headed for $6.3 million this weekend (down 36% from last weekend and near our $6.0 million forecast). The total domestic projection for 22 Jump Street has been adjusted up slightly to $193 million. Earth to Echo is headed for $5.7 million this weekend (down a very good 32% from last weekend and slightly above our $5.3 million forecast). The total domestic projection for Earth to Echo has been adjusted up to $40 million. How to Train Your Dragon 2 is headed for $5.6 million this weekend (down 38% from last weekend and a touch below our $6.0 million forecast). The total domestic projection for How to Train Your Dragon 2 has been adjusted to $172 million.
| Weekend 28: July 11-13, 2014 | ($ millions) | |||||
| Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast | Early Weekend Estimate | Actual Friday Gross | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | |||
| Dawn of the Planet of the Apes | Fox | [69.0] | 70.0 | 27.7 | 202 | |
| Transformers: Age of Extinction | Par | [17.5] | 16.0 | 4.83 | 249 | |
| Tammy | WB | [10.8] | 13.1 | 4.04 | 90 | |
| 22 Jump Street | Sony | [6.0] | 6.3 | 2.05 | 193 | |
| Earth to Echo | Rel | [5.3] | 5.7 | 1.76 | 40 | |
| How to Train Your Dragon 2 | Fox | [6.0] | 5.6 | 1.75 | 172 | |
| Deliver Us From Evil | Sony | [5.0] | 4.5 | 1.57 | 31 | |
| Maleficent | Dis | [4.2] | 4.0 | 1.24 | 239 | |
| Jersey Boys | WB | [3.0] | 2.4 | .71 | 49 | |
| Begin Again | Weins | [2.9] | 2.7 | .82 | 19 | |
| Think Like a Man Too | Sony | [2.7] | 2.3 | .76 | 65 | |
| America | LG/Sum | [—] | 2.3 | .72 | 10 | |
Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.
Total Box Office Volume
The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $134 million total Friday-Sunday, down 30% from the four-year average for the comparable weekend and down 29% from the same weekend last year.
| WEEKEND 28 | ($ millions) | ||
| Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films | Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only) | ||
| 2014 | $134 | Dawn of the Planet of the Apes $70.0 | |
| 2013 | $188 | Grown Ups 2 $41.5, Pacific Rim $37.3 | |
| 2012 | $154 | Ice Age: Continental Shift $46.6 | |
| 2011 | $252 | Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 $169.2, Winnie the Pooh $7.9 | |
| 2010 | $171 | Despicable Me $56.4, Predators $24.8 | |
| Avg 2010-13 | $192 | ||
Check back tomorrow for more complete Weekend Studio Estimates based on Saturday’s actual box office, as well as the International Box Office report.
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