Based on Friday’s grosses, weekend #30 of 2014 looks like $137 million for the top 12 films Friday-Sunday, better than our forecast earlier this week ($128 million) but still -8% below the norm for this weekend.
Opening at 3,173 theaters, Lucy from Universal grossed $17.1 million through Friday and is on track for a $46.0 million opening weekend (well above our $35.5 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast). The film is pacing toward a three-day average of $14,500 per theater for the weekend (well above the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years). Critical sentiment is slightly positive (60% positive overall and 61% positive with top critics). Lucy is headed for $134 million total domestic.
Opening at 3,595 theaters, Hercules from Paramount grossed $11.1 million Friday and is on track for a $30.0 million opening weekend (also well above our $21.5 million forecast). The film is pacing toward a three-day average of $8,300 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment is also mildly supportive (63% positive overall and 65% positive with top critics). Hercules is headed for $90 million total domestic.
Opening at 1,762 theaters, And So It Goes from Clarius grossed $1.36 million through Friday and is on track for a $4.0 million opening weekend (slightly above our $3.5 million forecast). The film is pacing toward a three-day average of $2,300 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment is negative (15% positive overall and a very weak 10% positive with top critics). And So It Goes is headed for $7 million total domestic.
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes is headed for $16.5 million this weekend (down 54% from last weekend and somewhat below our $19.9 million forecast). The total domestic outlook for Dawn of the Planet of the Apes has been adjusted to $228 million. The Purge: Anarchy is headed for $10.0 million this weekend (down 66% from last weekend and slightly below our $11.8 million forecast). The total domestic outlook for The Purge: Anarchy has been adjusted down to $70 million. Planes: Fire & Rescue is headed for $9.5 million this weekend (down 46% from last weekend and slightly below our $10.5 million forecast). The total domestic outlook for Planes: Fire & Rescue has been adjusted down to $58 million. Sex Tape is headed for $5.5 million this weekend (down 62% from last weekend and below our $7.1 million forecast). The total domestic outlook for Sex Tape has been adjusted down to $35 million.
| Weekend 30: July 25-27, 2014 | ($ millions) | |||||
| Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast | Early Weekend Estimate | Actual Friday Gross | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | |||
| Lucy | Uni | [35.5] | 46.0 | 17.1 | 134 | |
| Hercules | Par | [21.5] | 30.0 | 11.1 | 90 | |
| Dawn of the Planet of the Apes | Fox | [19.9] | 16.5 | 4.7 | 228 | |
| The Purge: Anarchy | Uni | [11.8] | 10.0 | 3.4 | 70 | |
| Planes: Fire & Rescue | Dis | [10.5] | 9.5 | 2.8 | 58 | |
| Sex Tape | Sony | [7.1] | 5.5 | 1.9 | 35 | |
| Transformers: Age of Extinction | Par | [5.6] | 4.6 | 1.3 | 248 | |
| And So It Goes | Clar | [3.5] | 4.0 | 1.4 | 7 | |
| Tammy | WB | [4.3] | 3.5 | 1.1 | 90 | |
| 22 Jump Street | Sony | [2.3] | 3.2 | 1.0 | 198 | |
Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.
Total Box Office Volume
The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $137 million total Friday-Sunday, down 8% from the four-year average for the comparable weekend and down 13% from the same weekend last year.
| WEEKEND 30 | ($ millions) | ||
| Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films | Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only) | ||
| 2014 | $137 | Lucy $46.0, Hercules $30.0, And So It Goes $4.0 | |
| 2013 | $158 | The Wolverine $53.1, Fruitvale Station $4.6 | |
| 2012 | $126 | The Watch $12.8, Step Up Revolution $11.7 | |
| 2011 | $171 | Cowboys & Aliens $36.4, The Smurfs $35.6 | |
| 2010 | $136 | Salt $36.0, Ramona and Beezus $7.8 | |
| Avg 2010-13 | $148 | ||
The Worldwide Studio Scorecard and International Box Office report (normally posted Sunday) will return next week.
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