July 7, 2012

FRIDAY JULY 6 BOX OFFICE RESULTS: Spider-Man Paces Very Solid Weekend

In line with our Tuesday forecast, the 27th weekend of 2012 is looking like $189 million for the Top 12 films Friday-Sunday, up 29% from this weekend last year and up 24% from the multi-year average for this weekend.         

The Amazing Spider-Man from Sony continued with $20.4 million Friday and is headed for an estimated $63.1 million opening weekend, almost exactly the $64.0 million ShowBuzzDaily forecast.  The film should average $14,600 for the weekend at 4,318  theaters.  In addition to the $75 million grossed Tuesday-Thursday, Amazing Spider-Man should total $138 million through Sunday, on its way to $284 million total domestic, according to our ShowbuzzDaily Forecast.  A complete international revenue update for this and all other films in wide release late Sunday.

Savages from Universal opened with $5.6 million Friday and is headed for a $16.8 million opening weekend, somewhat ahead of the $13.5 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast.   Playing at 2,628 theaters, the film should average $6,400 per theater (a very average number for all films released the last two years).   Savages is headed for a preliminary $54 million domestic gross.

Katy Perry: Part of Me from Paramount continued with $2.7 million Friday and is headed for $6.3 million this weekend, well below the $10.5 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast.  The music documentary should average a very weak $2,300 this weekend at 2,730 theaters.  In addition to the $3.1 million opening Thursday, Katy Perry should total $9.4 million through Sunday, headed for may $20 million total in North America.

With a strong second weekend performance and solid mid-week grosses, Ted has been upgraded to $211 million total domestic (from last week’s initial $171 million projection).  Also Brave has been increased to a domestic total of $243 million.

In case you missed them, click to see this week’s Weekend Predictions.

Weekend 27: July 6-8, 2012 ($ millions)
Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast Early Weekend Estimate Actual Friday Gross Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj.
Amazing Spider-Man Sony [64.0] 63.1 20.4 284
Ted Uni [28.9] 33.1 10.5 211
Brave Pix Dis [19.4] 20.5 6.2 243
Magic Mike WB [17.8] 17.9 6.1 121
Savages Uni [13.5] 16.8 5.6 54
TP’s Madea’s Witness Protection LG [10.6] 10.8 3.5 69
Madagascar 3 Par DW [7.0] 7.8 2.4 230
Katy Perry: Part of Me Par [10.5] 6.3 2.7 20
Moonrise Kingdom Foc Uni [3.5] 4.8 1.3 45
To Rome with Love Sony [3.5] 2.9 0.9 n/a
Marvel’s The Avengers Dis [—] 2.2 0.7 615
People Like Us Dis [—] 2.2 0.7 14

Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend.  The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets).  The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column).  The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America.  A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.


Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $189 million total Friday-Sunday, up 29% from the same calendar weekend last year and up 24% from the average for this weekend the past four years.

($ millions)
WEEKEND #27 Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films Top Movies Opening Each Weekend
2012 $189 Amazing Spider-Man $63, Savages $17
2011 $146 Horrible Bosses $28, Zookeeper $20
2010 $184 Despicable Me $56, Predators $25
2009 $135 Bruno $31, I Love You Beth Cooper $5
2008 $144 Hellboy II $35, Journey Center Earth $21
Avg 2008-11 $152

Check back tomorrow morning for updated weekend figures and revised estimates for domestic final grosses, as well as updated international figures later in the day Sunday.  On Monday, we will update the ShowbuzzDaily Summer Movie Fantasy Draft, as well.

NEVER MISS A SHOWBUZZDAILY POST.  Sign up for our daily email summary of the latest news and reviews.  It’s easy — just enter your email address in the box under “Sign Up for Our Mailing List” on the top right side of this page and click “Join Now”.

About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.