June 16, 2012


More articles by »
Written by: Mitch Metcalf
Tags: , , , , , , , ,

Back to barren summer theaters.  The 24th weekend of 2012 is looking like a very weak $122 million for the Top 12 films Friday-Sunday, down 17% from this weekend last year and down 21% from a more normal third weekend in June.  Both Rock of Ages and That’s My Boy proved to be incredibly weak.  It appears some pacts with the devil are expiring.    

Rock of Ages from Warner Brothers opened with $5.3 million Friday and is headed for an estimated $14.8 million opening weekend, completely missing the $28.5 million ShowBuzzDaily forecast by almost 50%.  The film should average a sub-par $4,300 for the weekend at 3,450  theaters.  Rock of Ages is headed for a preliminary $43 million in North America, far worse than Cruise’s Knight & Day ($76.4 million domestic in June 2010).  Critical reviews for Rock of Ages have held at a mediocre 43% positive at RottenTomatoes — Mitch Salem’s review is solidly in the 57% negative camp.  A complete international revenue update for this and all other films in wide release late Sunday.

That’s My Boy from Sony opened with a stunningly bad $4.5 million Friday and is headed for a disastrous $12.5 million opening weekend, way below the $28.0 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast.   Playing at 3,030 theaters, the film should average $4,100 per theater.   That’s My Boy is headed for a preliminary $33 million domestic gross, making Jack & Jill ($74.2 million domestic in November 2011) look like a runaway hit.  You have to go back to March 2007 and the $19.7 million domestic gross for Reign on Me for a similar Adam Sandler miss, but that wasn’t even a comedy.  The best comparison is the atrocious Little Nicky from November 2000 ($39.5 million domestic).  The RottenTomatoes average for That’s My Boy is holding at 24% positive, a critical rejection but not at unprecedented levels.  Read Mitch Salem’s review of That’s My Boy — it’s funnier than the film could ever be.

In their second weekends, Madagascar 3 is pacing a little better than expected, while Prometheus is lagging a bit.

In case you missed them, click to see this week’s Weekend Predictions.

Weekend 24: June 15-17, 2012 ($ millions)
Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast Early Weekend Estimate Actual Friday Gross Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj.
Madagascar 3 Par DW [34.0] 36.8 10.3 220
Prometheus Fox [23.7] 19.9 5.7 133
Rock of Ages WB [28.5] 14.8 5.3 43
Snow White and the Huntsman Uni [12.0] 12.9 4.0 153
That’s My Boy Sony [28.0] 12.5 4.5 33
Men in Black 3 Sony [8.3] 9.4 2.7 182
Marvel’s The Avengers Dis [7.8] 7.9 2.2 610
Best Exotic Marigold Hotel LG [2.4] 2.2 0.6 42
Moonrise Kingdom Foc Uni [1.7] 2.0 0.6 n/a
What to Expect When You’re Expecting LG [1.8] 1.4 0.5 43

Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend.  The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets).  The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column).  The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America.  A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.


Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $122 million total Friday-Sunday, down 17% from the same calendar weekend last year and down 21% from the average for this weekend the past four years.

($ millions)
WEEKEND #24 Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films Top Movies Opening Each Weekend
2012 $122 Rock of Ages $15, That’s My Boy $12.5
2011 $147 Green Lantern $53, Mr Popper’s Penguins $18
2010 $191 Toy Story 3 $110, Jonah Hex $5
2009 $145 The Proposal $34, Year One $20
2008 $138 Get Smart $39, The Love Guru $14
Avg 2008-11 $155

Check back tomorrow morning for updated weekend figures and revised estimates for domestic final grosses, as well as updated international figures later in the day Sunday.  On Monday, we will update the ShowbuzzDaily Summer Movie Fantasy Draft, as well.

NEVER MISS A SHOWBUZZDAILY POST.  Sign up for our daily email summary of the latest news and reviews.  It’s easy — just enter your email address in the box under “Sign Up for Our Mailing List” on the top right side of this page and click “Join Now”.  Check your email for a confirmation and click on the button in the email message.  You’ll be all set.  If you have any problems or need help, just send us a note at [email protected].

About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.