Based on Friday’s grosses, weekend #25 of 2014 looks like $144 million for the top 12 films Friday-Sunday, 11% below the norm for this weekend and a big 38% below the same very successful weekend last year.
Opening at 2,225 theaters, Think Like a Man Too from Sony grossed $12.2 million Friday and is on track for a $34.1 million opening three-day weekend (very close to our $35.0 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast). The film is pacing toward a solid three-day average of $15,300 per theater for the weekend (above the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years). Critical sentiment is weak (23% positive overall and an even lower 18% positive with top critics). Think Like a Man Too is headed for $93 million total domestic.
Opening at 2,905 theaters, Jersey Boys from Warner Brothers and director Clint Eastwood grossed $4.6 million Friday and is headed for a $13.8 million opening weekend (slightly above our $12.0 million forecast). The film is pacing toward a mediocre $4,800 average per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment is split (55% positive overall and a slightly more respectable 64% positive with top critics). Jersey Boys is headed for $38 million total domestic.
22 Jump Street is headed for $27.1 million in its second weekend (down 52% from last weekend and slightly below our $28.2 million forecast). The total domestic outlook for 22 Jump Street has been adjusted to $179 million. How to Train Your Dragon 2 is headed for $24.8 million in its second weekend (down 50% from last weekend and below our $28.2 million forecast). The total domestic outlook for How to Train Your Dragon 2 has been adjusted to $160 million. Maleficent is headed for $12.9 million this weekend (down 30% from last weekend and slightly above our $11.8 million forecast). The total domestic outlook for Maleficent has been adjusted up to $222 million. Edge of Tomorrow is headed for $9.8 million this weekend (down 41% from last weekend and very close to our $10.1 million forecast). The total domestic outlook for Edge of Tomorrow has been adjusted up to $104 million.
| Weekend 25: June 20-22, 2014 | ($ millions) | |||||
| Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast | Early Weekend Estimate | Actual Friday Gross | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | |||
| Think Like a Man Too | Sony | [35.0] | 34.1 | 12.2 | 93 | |
| 22 Jump Street | Sony | [28.2] | 27.1 | 9.4 | 179 | |
| How to Train Your Dragon 2 | Fox | [28.2] | 24.8 | 7.7 | 160 | |
| Jersey Boys | WB | [12.0] | 13.8 | 4.6 | 38 | |
| Maleficent | Dis | [11.8] | 12.9 | 4.0 | 222 | |
| Edge of Tomorrow | WB | [10.1] | 9.8 | 3.0 | 104 | |
| The Fault in Our Stars | Fox | [8.4] | 9.2 | 3.1 | 120 | |
| X-Men: Days of Future Past | Fox | [5.9] | 6.0 | 1.8 | 232 | |
| Godzilla | WB | [1.9] | 1.8 | 0.5 | 197 | |
| Chef | OpenR | [—] | 1.7 | 0.5 | 24 | |
| A Million Ways to Die in the West | Uni | [1.7] | 1.5 | 0.5 | 43 | |
Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.
Total Box Office Volume
The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $144 million total Friday-Sunday, down 11% from the four-year average for the comparable weekend and down 38% from the same weekend last year.
| WEEKEND 25 | ($ millions) | ||
| Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films | Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only) | ||
| 2014 | $144 | Think Like a Man Too $34.1, Jersey Boys $13.8 | |
| 2013 | $232 | Monsters University $82.4, World War Z $66.4 | |
| 2012 | $157 | Brave $66.3, Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter $16.3 | |
| 2011 | $170 | Cars 2 $66.1, Bad Teacher $31.6 | |
| 2010 | $157 | Grown Ups $40.5, Knight & Day $20.1 | |
| Avg 2010-13 | $161 | ||
Check back tomorrow for more complete Weekend Studio Estimates based on Saturday’s actual box office, as well as the International Box Office report.
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