June 9, 2012

FRIDAY JUNE 8 BOX OFFICE RESULTS: Audiences Return in Droves

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Written by: Mitch Metcalf
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The box office is roaring back to life this weekend after three weeks of unimpressed moviegoers.  The 23rd weekend of 2012 is looking like a killer $183 million for the Top 12 films Friday-Sunday, up 38% from this weekend last year and up 25% from a more normal second weekend in June.  As expected, Prometheus served the adult and male sci-fi crowd well, while Madagascar 3 nailed the family and kid audience especially well.    

Madagascar 3: Europe’s Most Wanted from Paramount/ DreamWorks opened with $20.3 million Friday and is headed for an estimated $61.1 million opening weekend, exceeding the $50.5 million ShowBuzzDaily forecast by a comfortable margin.  The film should average a very solid $14,400 for the weekend at a very wide 4,258  theaters.  Madagascar 3 is headed for a preliminary $204 million in North America, now on track to beat the original’s $193.6 million domestic gross in 2005 and Madagascar 2‘s $180.0 million in 2008.  Critical reviews have held at a solid 76% positive at RottenTomatoes, and look for Mitch Salem’s review later today.  A complete international revenue update for this and all other films in wide release late Sunday.

Prometheus from 20th Century Fox opened with slightly more on Friday ($21.1 million) but won’t have the stampede of young children and their parents Saturday and Sunday afternoons, but the weekend is still headed for a strong $55.8 million, a touch above the $54.5 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast.   Playing at fewer theaters (3,396), the film should average a very good $16,400 per theater.   Prometheus is headed for a preliminary $159 million domestic gross.  While its RottenTomatoes average is decent for a sci-fi film (74% positive), its CinemaScore of opening night attendees is a soft “B” grade (compared to Madagascar 3‘s “A”).  Read Mitch Salem’s take on Prometheus here.

The returning films are returning exactly as expected.  It’s a good sign to see five films with weekends over $10 million, rather than the standard three movies the past several weekends.

In case you missed them, click to see this week’s Weekend Predictions.

Weekend 23: June 8-10, 2012 ($ millions)
Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast Early Weekend Estimate Actual Friday Gross Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj.
Madagascar 3 Par DW [50.5] 61.1 20.3 204
Prometheus Fox [54.5] 55.8 21.1 159
Snow White and the Huntsman Uni [27.0] 24.1 7.5 156
Men in Black 3 Sony [14.5] 14.7 4.2 179
Marvel’s The Avengers Dis [13.0] 11.9 3.3 612
Best Exotic Marigold Hotel LG [3.0] 3.2 0.9 41
What to Expect When You’re Expecting LG [2.6] 2.8 0.9 42
Battleship Uni [2.3] 2.4 0.7 65
The Dictator Par [2.3] 2.4 0.7 63

Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend.  The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets).  The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column).  The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America.  A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.


Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $183 million total Friday-Sunday, up 38% from the same calendar weekend last year and up 25% from the average for this weekend the past four years.  In normal years, the second weekend in June is lucky to get one movie to open above $50 million.  This year two films exceeded that benchmark, setting a new standard for this particular weekend.

($ millions)
WEEKEND #23 Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films Top Movies Opening Each Weekend
2012 $183 Madagascar 3 $61, Prometheus $56
2011 $132 Super 8 $35.5, Judy Moody $6, Midnight in Paris $6
2010 $145 Karate Kid $56, The A-Team $26
2009 $132 Taking of Pelham 1 2 3 $23, Imagine That $5.5
2008 $176 Incredible Hulk $55, The Happening $30
Avg 2008-11 $146

Check back tomorrow morning for updated weekend figures and revised estimates for domestic final grosses, as well as updated international figures later in the day Sunday.  On Monday, we will update the ShowbuzzDaily Summer Movie Fantasy Draft, as well.




About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.