Weekend #23 of 2012 looks like it will total about $174 million for the top 12 films, up 32% from last year’s comparable weekend and up 19% from the four-year average for the weekend. A pair of decently-reviewed openers aimed at very different audiences should both put some life back in the box office after three weeks of soft performance.
Opening at an estimated 3,300 theaters, Prometheus from 20th Century Fox should average $16,400 per theater (for $54.5 million Friday-Sunday). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had an opening three-day weekend of $5,525 per theater.] The reviews at RottenTomatoes are currently running at a solid 77% positive. Prometheus currently stands at a preliminary $155 million domestic estimate.
Opening at an estimated 4,000 theaters, Madagascar 3: Europe’s Most Wanted from Paramount/ DreamWorks should average $12,600 per theater (for $50.5 million Friday-Sunday). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had an opening three-day weekend of $5,525 per theater.] The reviews at RottenTomatoes are currently running at 79% positive. Madagascar 3 currently stands at a preliminary $175 million domestic estimate (the kid and family audience should provide stronger legs than the sci-fi genre fans will give Prometheus), but falling short of the original’s $193.6 million in 2005 and Madagascar 2‘s $180.0 million in 2008. (Overseas, Madagascar grossed another $339.1 million, while Madagascar 2 took in an additional $423.9 million.)
| NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND | ($ millions) | |||||
| June 8-10, 2012 | Critics Positive | Opening Weekend Forecast | Domestic Total Projection | |||
| Prometheus | Fox | R | 77% | 54.5 | 155 | |
| Madagascar 3 | Par | PG | 79% | 50.5 | 175 | |
Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie.
* The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.
Among the holdovers, Snow White and the Huntsman should decline 52% (a little worse than average) for another $27 million this weekend, while Men in Black 3 should decline 49% (similar to its second weekend decline) to $14.5 million. Still hanging around in its sixth weekend, The Avengers should collect a very respectable $13 million. (An average film still playing in its sixth weekend grosses $600,000, while a film in the top 10 percent grosses $4.3 million in weekend six.)
| RETURNING FILMS | ($ millions) | ||||
| June 8-10, 2012 | Change vs Last Weekend | Weekend Forecast | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | ||
| Snow White and the Hunstman | Uni | -52% | 27.0 | 161 | |
| Men in Black 3 | Sony | -49% | 14.5 | 181 | |
| The Avengers | Dis | -37% | 13.0 | 629 | |
| Best Exotic Marigold Hotel | LG | -33% | 3.0 | 40 | |
| What to Expect When You’re Expecting | LG | -42% | 2.6 | 42 | |
| Battleship | Uni | -56% | 2.3 | 69 | |
| The Dictator | Par | -52% | 2.3 | 66 | |
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films in this comparable weekend have averaged $146 million total, ranking 16th of 52 weeks. Last year this weekend’s total was $132 million. This Friday-Sunday is looking like a strong $174 million, up 32% from this weekend last year and up 19% from an “average” comparable weekend over the past four years. This would be the first up weekend in four weeks and a return to form that we have seen much of 2012.
This Weekend Last Two Years
6/10/11
Super 8 PAR PG13 Kyle Chandler Elle Fanning
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $35 Actual: $35
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $133 Actual: $127
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $133
Judy Moody and the NOT Bummer Summer REL PG Heather Graham
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $7 Actual: $6
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $12 Actual: $15
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $0
Midnight in Paris SONY PG13 Owen Wilson Rachel McAdams
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $6 Actual: $6
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $40 Actual: $56
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $92
6/11/10
The A-Team FOX PG13 Liam Neeson Bradley Cooper
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $35 Actual: $26
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $88 Actual: $77
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $100
The Karate Kid SONY PG Jaden Smith Jackie Chan
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $30 Actual: $56
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $185 Actual: $177
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $182
Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.
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