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The 11th weekend of 2012 is looking to be very normal for the third weekend of March: $101 million for the Top 12 films, down 2% from the same weekend in 2011 and down the same amount from the weekend’s multi-year average. 21 Jump Street opened even better than expected and The Lorax continues to do well in its third weekend, but John Carter had a bigger than anticipated drop in its second weekend and there just isn’t any excitement for the films outside the top three. Friends with Kids tried to expand, but will average only $2,300 in 640 theaters this weekend, pretty much ending its potential for further expansion.
21 Jump Street from Sony opened with $13.1 million Friday for an estimated $36.0 million for Friday-Sunday, cruising past the $30.5 million ShowBuzzDaily forecast. The R-rated remake of the early FOX television series (starring a young Johnny Depp) is averaging a robust $11,500 at 3,121 theaters. The film now has a very good 87% positive review score at RottenTomatoes. ShowBuzzDaily’s Mitch Salem is a little less enthusiastic in his review. 21 Jump Street is headed for a preliminary $122 million total domestic.
In its second weekend, John Carter is looking at a 57% weekend decline to $13.1 million, missing our forecast of $16.8 million. Nonetheless, midweek business was somewhat better than our model predicted so the Domestic Final estimate has actually been upgraded a bit to $80 million. The Lorax continues to cruise in its third weekend, down only 37% to $24.6 million, nailing the $24.5 million forecast. The Domestic Final for The Lorax has rebounded to $227 million.
In case you missed them, click to see this week’s Weekend Predictions
March 16-18, 2012 Pre-Wknd Wknd Showbuzz
(millions) Showbuzz Early FRI Domestic
Forecast Proj. Actual Final
21 Jump Street (Sony) [$30.5] $36.0 $13.1 $122
The Lorax (Uni) [$24.5] $24.6 $ 6.7 $227
John Carter (Dis) [$16.8] $13.1 $ 3.9 $ 80
Project X (WB) [$ 6.0] $ 4.3 $ 1.5 $ 60-
Act of Valor (Rel) [$ 3.9] $ 4.0 $ 1.1 $ 72
A Thousand Words (Par) [$ 3.6] $ 3.7 $ 1.1 $ 16+
Safe House (Uni) [$ 3.2] $ 2.9 $ 0.8 $131
Journey 2 (WB) [$ 2.5] $ 2.9 $ 0.7 $105
Silent House (Open Road) [$ 2.5] $ 2.3 $ 0.7 $ 12
The Vow (Sony) [$ 2.5] $ 2.3 $ 0.7 $131
(millions) Showbuzz Early FRI Domestic
Forecast Proj. Actual Final
21 Jump Street (Sony) [$30.5] $36.0 $13.1 $122
The Lorax (Uni) [$24.5] $24.6 $ 6.7 $227
John Carter (Dis) [$16.8] $13.1 $ 3.9 $ 80
Project X (WB) [$ 6.0] $ 4.3 $ 1.5 $ 60-
Act of Valor (Rel) [$ 3.9] $ 4.0 $ 1.1 $ 72
A Thousand Words (Par) [$ 3.6] $ 3.7 $ 1.1 $ 16+
Safe House (Uni) [$ 3.2] $ 2.9 $ 0.8 $131
Journey 2 (WB) [$ 2.5] $ 2.9 $ 0.7 $105
Silent House (Open Road) [$ 2.5] $ 2.3 $ 0.7 $ 12
The Vow (Sony) [$ 2.5] $ 2.3 $ 0.7 $131
This Means War (Fox) [$ 2.4] $ 2.3 $ 0.7 $ 56
Friends with Kids (Road) [$ 2.4] $ 1.5 $ 0.5 $ 12
Friends with Kids (Road) [$ 2.4] $ 1.5 $ 0.5 $ 12
Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.
Total Box Office Volume
The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $101 million total Friday-Sunday, down 2% from the same calendar weekend last year and down 2% from the more typical volume for this weekend in other years. Although only down slightly, this is the first down weekend versus 2011 in eight weeks and the first down weekend versus the multi-year average in five weeks.
Total Box Office Volume
The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $101 million total Friday-Sunday, down 2% from the same calendar weekend last year and down 2% from the more typical volume for this weekend in other years. Although only down slightly, this is the first down weekend versus 2011 in eight weeks and the first down weekend versus the multi-year average in five weeks.
Top 12 Films: Weekend #11
Volume Movies Opening Each Weekend (millions)
2012 $101 21 Jump Street $36
2011 $103 Limitless $19, Lincoln Lawyer $13, Paul $13
2010 $115 Diary Wimpy Kid $22, Bounty Hunter $21, Repo Men $6
2009 $ 96 Knowing $25, I Love You Man $18, Duplicity $14
2008 $ 99 Meet the Browns $20, Shutter $10, Drillbit Taylor $10
2008-11
Avg $103
Check back tomorrow for updated weekend figures and revised estimates for domestic final grosses.
2012 $101 21 Jump Street $36
2011 $103 Limitless $19, Lincoln Lawyer $13, Paul $13
2010 $115 Diary Wimpy Kid $22, Bounty Hunter $21, Repo Men $6
2009 $ 96 Knowing $25, I Love You Man $18, Duplicity $14
2008 $ 99 Meet the Browns $20, Shutter $10, Drillbit Taylor $10
2008-11
Avg $103
Check back tomorrow for updated weekend figures and revised estimates for domestic final grosses.
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