March 23, 2013


Based on Friday’s grosses, Weekend #12 of 2013 is another down weekend (making it 10 down weekends out of 12 this year so far): $128 million for the top 12 films Friday-Sunday (down 10% from an average comparable weekend the past few years and down 37% from the same weekend last year dominated by the monstrous Hunger Games).  

Opening at 4,046 theaters, The Croods from DreamWorks Animation and 20th Century Fox grossed $11.6 million Friday and is on track for a $42.5 million opening weekend (a touch better than the $40.5 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast).   The film is averaging a solid $10,500 per theater for the weekend (double the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years), while critical sentiment is a fairly positive 65% positive.  The Croods are headed for $149 million total domestic. 

Opening at 3,098 theaters Friday, Olympus Has Fallen from FilmDistrict grossed $10 million Friday and is on pace for a $28 million opening weekend (comfortably above the $22.5 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast earlier this week).   The film is averaging $9,000 per theater for the weekend.  Critics are split: 51% positive reviews at RottenTomatoes.  Olympus Has Fallen should finish with $82 million total domestic.

Opening at 2,160 theaters Friday, Admission from Focus/ Universal whiffed with $2.1 million Friday and is on track for a lame $6.2 million opening weekend (well below the $9.0 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast earlier this week).   The film is averaging a very poor $2,900 per theater for the weekend.  Critics are tilting negative: 45% positive reviews at RottenTomatoes.  Admission should finish with $19 million total domestic.

Expanding to 1,104 theaters Friday (from 3 last week), Spring Breakers from newcomer A24 grossed $2.1 million Friday and is headed for a weak $5.2 million opening weekend (below the $8.0 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast earlier this week).   The film is averaging mediocre $4,700 per theater for the weekend.  Critics are positive (downright giddy compared to the other openers this weekend): 69% positive reviews at RottenTomatoes.  Spring Breakers should finish with $21 million total domestic.

Weekend 12 March 22-24, 2013 ($ millions)
Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast Early Weekend Estimate Actual Friday Gross Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj.
The Croods DW/Fox [40.5] 42.5 11.6 149
Olympus Has Fallen FilmDis ]22.5] 28.0 10.0 82
Oz the Great and Powerful Dis [20.9] 20.5 5.6 233
The Call Sony [8.8] 8.8 2.7 51
Admission Focus [9.0] 6.2 2.1 19
Spring Breakers A24 [8.0] 5.2 2.1 21
Incredible Burt Wonderstone WB [5.1] 4.3 1.3 25
Jack the Giant Slayer WB [3.3] 2.7 .76 63
Identity Thief Uni [2.7] 2.5 .76 141
Snitch Summit [2.0] 1.8 .54 45

Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend.  The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets).  The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column).  The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America.  A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.


In case you missed them, click to see this week’s Weekend Predictions.


Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $128 million total Friday-Sunday, down 10% from the four-year average for the comparable weekend and down 37% from the same weekend last year, which was boosted by The Hunger Games.

 WEEKEND #12 ($ millions)
Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only)
2013 $128 The Croods $43, Olympus Has Fallen $28, Admission $6, Spring Breakers $5
2012 $204 The Hunger Games $152
2011 $109 Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Rodrick Rules $24, Sucker Punch $19
2010 $117 How to Train Your Dragon $44, Hot Tub Time Machine $14
2009 $139 Monsters vs Aliens $59, Haunting in Connecticut $23, 12 Rounds $5
Avg 2009-12 $142

Check back tomorrow for more complete Weekend Studio Estimates based on Saturday’s actual box office, as well as the International Box Office report.

About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.