March 30, 2013


Based on Friday’s grosses, Weekend #13 of 2013 is relatively close to the comparable weekend the past few years: about $139 million for the top 12 films Friday-Sunday, compared to a $143 million average for this weekend the past few years.  

Opening at 3,719 theaters Thursday with $10.5 million, G.I. Joe: Retaliation from Paramount grossed $15.5 million Friday and is on track for a $38 million opening three-day weekend (nailing the $38 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast).   The film is averaging a solid $10,200 per theater for the weekend (double the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years), while critical sentiment is a weak 29% positive.  With about $49 million Thursday-Sunday, Retaliation is headed for $120 million total domestic. 

Opening at 2,047 theaters Friday, Tyler Perry’s Temptation: Confessions of a Marriage Counselor from Lionsgate grossed $9.4 million Friday and is on pace for a $22 million opening weekend (comfortably above the $17.5 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast earlier this week).   The film is averaging $10,700 per theater for the weekend.  Critics are predictably hostile: 6% positive reviews at RottenTomatoes.  Temptation should finish with $56 million total domestic.

Opening at 3,202 theaters Friday, The Host from Open Road Films whiffed with $5.5 million Friday and is on track for $13.2 million opening weekend (a touch below the $14.5 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast earlier this week).   The film is averaging a very poor $4,100 per theater for the weekend.  Critics are very negative: 12% positive reviews at RottenTomatoes.  The Host should finish with $27 million total domestic.

Weekend 13 March 29-31, 2013 ($ millions)
Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast Early Weekend Estimate Actual Friday Gross Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj.
G.I. Joe: Retaliation Par [38.0] 38.0 15.5 120
The Croods DW/Fox [28.1] 27.5 10.7 163
Tyler Perry’s Temptation LG [17.5] 22.0 9.4 56
The Host OpenRoad [14.5] 13.2 5.5 27
Olympus Has Fallen FilmDis [15.8] 13.5 4.8 86
Oz the Great and Powerful Dis [12.7] 11.3 4.3 235
The Call Sony [4.6] 4.5 1.7 50
Admission Focus [3.7] 3.1 1.2 18
Spring Breakers A24 [2.2] 2.5 1.1 17
Incredible Burt Wonderstone WB [2.2] 1.4 .49 23

Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend.  The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets).  The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column).  The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America.  A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.


In case you missed them, click to see this week’s Weekend Predictions.


Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $139 million total Friday-Sunday, down a scant 3% from the four-year average for the comparable weekend and down a negligible 1% from the same weekend last year.

 WEEKEND #13 ($ millions)
Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only)
2013 $139 G.I. Joe: Retaliation $38, TP’s Temptation $22, The Host $13
2012 $140 Wrath of the Titans $33.5, Mirror Mirror $18
2011 $114 Hop $37.5, Source Code $15, Insidious $13
2010 $169 Clash of the Titans $61, TP’s Why Did I Get Married Too $29, Last Song $16
2009 $149 Fast & Furious $71, Adventureland $6
Avg 2009-12 $143

Check back tomorrow for more complete Weekend Studio Estimates based on Saturday’s actual box office, as well as the International Box Office report.

About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.