March 31, 2012


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Written by: Mitch Metcalf
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The 13th weekend of 2012 is looking like $146 million for the Top 12 films, up 28% from this weekend last year and up 14% from the four-year average for the first weekend in April.  The Hunger Games had a sizable drop in its second weekend but not unlike other huge openers, and the film is still pacing for a mammoth final gross.  Wrath of the Titans and Mirror Mirror opened in second and third place with opening weekends somewhat lower than our forecasts.         

The Hunger Games grossed $18.85 million Friday and is headed for $62 million in its second weekend, down 59% from the massive opening weekend.  If the second weekend number holds, The Hunger Games will total about $252 million through its first 10 days.  Comparing it to movies with similar massive opening weekends, the 10-day total for The Hunger Games will lag The Dark Knight ($313.8 million 10-day) but will be pacing ahead of Spider-Man 3 ($240.2 million 10-day), Twilight Saga: New Moon ($230.9 million 10-day) and Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 1 ($220.8 million 10-day).  Our estimated final domestic for The Hunger Games is holding at $397 million.    

Wrath of the Titans from Warner Brothers opened with $12.4 million Friday for an estimated $33 million for Friday-Sunday, missing the $39.5 million ShowBuzzDaily forecast and almost half the $61.2 million opening for Clash of the Titans April 2-4, 2010.  As the saying goes, fool me once, shame on me….  The crticially savaged sequel (only 25% positive reviews at RottenTomatoes) should average $9,300 this weekend at 3,545 theaters.  Wrath of the Titans is headed for a preliminary $88 million total domestic (compared to the $163.2 million domestic for Clash of the Titans two years ago). 

Mirror Mirror from Relativity opened with $5.9 Friday and should hit $20.5 million this weekend, below the $24 million ShowBuzzDaily forecast.  The film should average $5,700 per the theater this weekend (a completely average figure) at 3,603 theaters.  Mirror Mirror is headed for $55 million total domestic.

 In case you missed them, click to see this week’s Weekend Predictions

Mar 30-Apr 1, 2012      Pre-Wknd    Wknd            Showbuzz
(millions)              Showbuzz    Early    FRI    Domestic
                        Forecast    Proj.   Actual   Final

The Hunger Games (LG)    [$70.5]    $62.0   $18.9     $397
Wrath of the Titans (WB) [$39.5]    $33.0   $12.4     $ 88
Mirror Mirror (Rel)      [$24.0]    $20.5   $ 5.9     $ 55
21 Jump Street (Sony)    [$12.0]    $14.3   $ 4.7     $131
The Lorax (Uni)          [$ 8.0]    $ 7.8   $ 2.0     $213
John Carter (Dis)        [$ 2.2]    $ 1.9   $ 0.5     $ 72
Act of Valor (Rel)       [$ 1.2]    $ 1.0   $ 0.3     $ 71 
A Thousand Words (Par)   [$ 1.1]    $ 0.9   $ 0.5     $ 16
Salmon Fishing Yemen (CBS)[$1.4]    $ 1.3   $ 0.3      —
October Baby (5&2)       [$ 1.0]    $ 0.8   $ 0.2      —
Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend.  The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets).  The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column).  The final     column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America.  A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.  

Total Box Office Volume 

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like a solid $146 million total Friday-Sunday, up 28% from the same calendar weekend last year and up 14% from the more typical volume for this weekend in other years.  


Top 12 Films: Weekend #13

     Volume    Movies Opening Each Weekend (millions)
2012  $146  Wrath of the Titans $33, Mirror Mirror $20.5

2011  $114  Hop $37.5, Source Code $15, Insidious $13
2010  $169  Clash of the Titans $61, TP Why Did I Married $29
2009  $149  Fast & Furious $71, Adventureland $6

2008  $ 80  Nim’s Island $13, Leatherheads $13, The Ruins $8
Avg   $128

Check back tomorrow for updated weekend figures and revised estimates for domestic final grosses.


About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.