March 8, 2014

FRIDAY MARCH 7 Box Office Report

Based on Friday’s grosses, weekend #10 of 2014 looks like $133 million for the top 12 films Friday-Sunday, slightly ahead of the the average for this weekend the past few years.

Opening at 3,470 theaters Friday, 300: Rise of an Empire from Warner Brothers grossed $17.4 million Friday, putting the film on track for a $44.3 million opening weekend (above our $36.5 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast). The film is pacing toward a three-day average of $12,800 per theater for the weekend (well above the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years). Critical sentiment is pretty soft (43% positive overall and 41% positive with top critics). 300: Rise of an Empire is headed for $126 million total domestic, below $210.6 million domestic gross for 300 (released March 9, 2007).

Opening at 3,934 theaters Friday, Mr. Peabody & Sherman from Fox and DreamWorks Animation grossed $7.9 million Friday, putting the film on track for a $29.7 million opening weekend (very close to our $30.0 million forecast). The film is pacing toward a three-day average of $7,500 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment is supportive (77% positive overall at RottenTomatoes and only 67% positive with top critics). Mr. Peabody & Sherman is headed for around $115 million total domestic, in between the recent DreamWorks Animation films: $83.0 million domestic for Turbo (released July 17, 2013) and $187.2 million for The Croods (released March 22, 2013).

Weekend 10: March 7-9, 2014 ($ millions)
Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast Early Weekend Estimate Actual Friday Gross Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj.
300: Rise of an Empire WB [36.5] 44.3 17.4 126
Mr Peabody & Sherman Fox/DWA [30.0] 29.7 7.9 115
Non-Stop Uni [15.6] 15.1 4.7 89
The LEGO Movie WB [14.1] 11.5 2.5 265
Son of God Fox [12.8] 9.2 2.7 57
Frozen 3D Dis [3.1] 3.2 .63 399
3 Days to Kill Rel [2.3] 2.9 .87 29
The Monuments Men Sony [3.7] 2.9 .85 79
12 Years a Slave Fox [2.9] 2.3 .58 58
Ride Along Uni [—] 2.0 .57 135
RoboCop Sony [2.2] 2.0 .51 60
Pompeii Sony [2.0] 1.7 .46 23

Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.


Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $133 million total Friday-Sunday, up 7% from the four-year average for the comparable weekend and up 4% from the same weekend last year.

WEEKEND 10 ($ millions)
Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only)
2014 $133 300: Rise of an Empire $44.3, Mr. Peabody & Sherman $29.7
2013 $128 Oz the Great and Powerful $79.1, Dead Man Down $5.3
2012 $121 John Carter $30.2, Silent House $6.7, A Thousand Words $6.2
2011 $118 Battle: Los Angeles $35.6, Red Riding Hood $14.0, Mars Needs Moms $6.9
2010 $136 Green Zone $14.3, She’s Out of My League $9.8, Remember Me $8.1
Avg 2010-13 $125

Check back tomorrow for more complete Weekend Studio Estimates based on Saturday’s actual box office, as well as the International Box Office report.

About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.