March 9, 2013


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Written by: Mitch Metcalf
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Based on Friday’s grosses, Weekend #10 of 2013 is the first weekend in 7 weeks to match the pace for this time of year: $122 million for the top 12 films Friday-Sunday (even with last year and up 5% from the same weekend average for the last few years).  Most of the credit for the relative strength of the weekend goes to Oz the Great and Powerful, but chances are it will decline rapidly in the next few weeks.        

Opening at 3,912 theaters Friday, Oz the Great and Powerful from Disney grossed $23.6 Friday and is on track for a $71.9 million opening weekend (missing the $75 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast earlier this week).   The film is averaging $18,400 per theater for the weekend (well above the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years).  Critics are mildly positive: 60% positive reviews at RottenTomatoes.  Oz should finish with $187 million total domestic.

Opening at 2,188 theaters, Dead Man Down from FilmDistrict grossed $1.8 million Friday and is on track for a $5.1 million opening weekend (just below the $5.5 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast).   The film is averaging a dreadful $2,300 per theater for the weekend, and critical sentiment is a soft 40% positive.  Dead Man Down is headed for maybe $11 million total domestic. 

Weekend 10: March 8-10, 2013 ($ millions)
Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast Early Weekend Estimate Actual Friday Gross Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj.
Oz the Great and Powerful Dis [75.0] 71.9 23.6 187
Jack the Giant Slayer WB [13.3] 10.3 2.5 66
Identity Thief Uni [5.9] 6.2 1.8 134
Snitch Summit [4.5] 5.1 1.4 43
Dead Man Down FilmDis [5.5] 5.1 1.8 11
21 and Over Rel [4.5] 4.9 1.6 26
Safe Haven Rel [3.5] 3.9 1.2 70
Silver Linings Playbook Weins [4.4] 3.8 1.0  125
Escape from Planet Earth Weins [3.8] 3.6 0.7 57
The Last Exorcism Part II CBS [2.8] 2.9 1.1 11

Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend.  The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets).  The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column).  The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America.  A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.


In case you missed them, click to see this week’s Weekend Predictions.


Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $122 million total Friday-Sunday, up 5% from the average comparable weekend the last four years and virtually unchanged from the same weekend last year.

 WEEKEND #10 ($ millions)
Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only)
2013 $122 Oz the Great and Powerful $72, Dead Man Down $5
2012 $121 John Carter $30, Silent House $7, A Thousand Words $6
2011 $118 Battle: Los Angeles $36, Red Riding Hood $14, Mars Needs Moms $7
2010 $136 Green Zone $14, She’s Out of My League $10, Remember Me $8
2009 $88 Race to Witch Mountain $24, Last House on the Left $14, Miss March $2
Avg 2009-12 $116

Check back tomorrow for more complete Weekend Studio Estimates based on Saturday’s actual box office, as well as the International Box Office report.

About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.