May 11, 2013


More articles by »
Written by: Mitch Metcalf
Tags: , , , , , , , , ,

Based on Friday’s grosses, Weekend #19 of 2013 looks like $151 million for the top 12 films, below the same weekend last year but above the four-year average for the weekend.  Iron Man 3 remains #1 in its second weekend, but it is on pace for a 61% decline from its opening (compared to a 50% decline for The Avengers last year to a $103.1 million second weekend).  The Great Gatsby is a very strong #2 for the weekend, well above the ShowbuzzDaily forecast and miles ahead of last year’s opener (Dark Shadow’s $29.7 million, also in the #2 spot for the weekend).  Gatsby’s opening is on track to outgross director Baz Luhrmann’s total domestic grosses for Romeo + Juliet ($46.4 million), Australia ($49.6 million) and even his biggest previous film, Moulin Rouge! ($57.4 million).   I shall never under-estimate the enduring appeal of Leonardo DiCaprio again.

Opening at 3,535 theaters late Thursday, The Great Gatsby from Warner Brothers grossed $19.3 million Thursday night-Friday and is on track for a $57.8 million opening weekend (well above the $38 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast).   The film is averaging $16,400 per theater for the weekend (about three times above the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years), while critical sentiment is perfectly mixed: 48% positive at RottenTomatoes (and top critics are not at all impressed: only 32% positive).  Great Gatsby is headed for $149 million total domestic.

Opening at 2,041 theaters Friday, Peeples from Lionsgate grossed only $1.2 million Friday and is on track for a $4.2 million opening weekend (well below the $11 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast).   The film is averaging $2,100 per theater for the weekend, while critical sentiment is negative: 37% positive reviews.  Peeples is headed for maybe $9 million total domestic.

Weekend 19

May 10-12, 2013

($ millions)
Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast Early Weekend Estimate Actual Friday Gross Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj.
Iron Man 3 Dis [73.9] 67.4 19.3 410
Great Gatsby WB [38.0] 57.8 19.3 149
Pain and Gain Par [4.1] 4.3 1.3 48
Peeples LG [11.0] 4.2 1.2 9
42 WB [3.7] 4.0 1.1 96
Oblivion Uni [3.0] 3.6 1.0 91
The Croods DW/Fox [3.0] 3.4 .70 178
Mud Roadside [2.3] 2.3 .63 18
The Big Wedding LG [2.4] 2.0 .57 19

Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend.  The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets).  The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column).  The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America.  A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.


In case you missed them, click to see this week’s Weekend Predictions.


Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $151 million total Friday-Sunday, up 9% from the four-year average for the comparable weekend but down 7% from the same weekend last year.

 WEEKEND #19 ($ millions)
Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only)
2013 $151 Great Gatsby $57.8, Peeples $4.2
2012 $162 Dark Shadows $29.7
2011 $129 Bridesmaids $26.2, Priest $15.0
2010 $131 Robin Hood $36.1, Letters to Juliet $13.5, Just Wright $8.3
2009 $131 Angels & Demons $46.2
Avg 2009-12 $138

Check back tomorrow for more complete Weekend Studio Estimates based on Saturday’s actual box office, as well as the International Box Office report.

About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.