Based on Friday’s grosses, weekend #19 of 2014 looks like $127 million for the top 12 films Friday-Sunday, down 10% from the norm for this weekend (somewhat better than we expected due to the impressive strength of Neighbors).
Opening at 3,279 theaters, Neighbors from Universal grossed $19.6 million Friday, putting the film on track for a $49.7 million opening weekend (well above our $37.0 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast). The film is pacing toward a solid three-day average of $15,200 per theater for the weekend (above the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years). Critical sentiment is supportive (73% positive overall and 74% positive with top critics). Neighbors is headed for $165 million total domestic.
Opening at 2,641 theaters, Legends of Oz: Dorothy Returns from Freestyle grossed $1 million Friday, putting the film on track for a $4.1 million opening weekend (near our $4.5 million forecast). The film is pacing toward a sad three-day average of $1,600 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment is awful (15% positive overall and 0% positive with top critics). Legends of Oz: Dorothy Returns is headed for $6 million total domestic.
Opening at 1,044 theaters, Moms’ Night Out from Sony grossed $1.2 million Friday, putting the film on track for a $3.8 million opening weekend (near our $3.7 million forecast). The film is pacing toward a sub-par three-day average of $3,600 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment is weak (17% positive overall and only 7% positive with top critics). Moms’ Night Out is headed for $6 million total domestic.
The Amazing Spider-Man 2 is the top holdover and the only one doing really significant business. Nonetheless, ASM2 is down -60% from its opening weekend and has been downgraded to $230 million total domestic.
| Weekend 19: May 9-11, 2014 | ($ millions) | |||||
| Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast | Early Weekend Estimate | Actual Friday Gross | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | |||
| Neighbors | Uni | [37.0] | 49.7 | 19.6 | 165 | |
| Amazing Spider-Man 2 | Sony | [37.3] | 36.7 | 10.3 | 230 | |
| The Other Woman | Fox | [8.7] | 9.5 | 2.8 | 84 | |
| Heaven Is For Real | Sony | [5.9] | 6.1 | 1.6 | 90 | |
| Captain America: The Winter Soldier | Dis | [4.8] | 5.5 | 1.5 | 258 | |
| Rio 2 | Fox | [5.0] | 5.5 | 1.2 | 124 | |
| Legends of Oz: Dorothy Returns | Free | [4.5] | 4.1 | .99 | 6 | |
| Moms’ Night Out | Sony | [3.7] | 3.8 | 1.2 | 6 | |
| Grand Budapest Hotel | FoxS | [—] | 1.7 | .40 | 58 | |
| Brick Mansions | Rel | [1.9] | 1.6 | .49 | 19 | |
| Divergent | LG/Sum | [1.4] | 1.6 | .44 | 150 | |
| God’s Not Dead | Free | [—] | 1.2 | .33 | 62 | |
Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.
Total Box Office Volume
The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $127 million total Friday-Sunday, down 10% from the four-year average for the comparable weekend and down 16% from the really weak total the same weekend last year.
| WEEKEND 19 | ($ millions) | ||
| Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films | Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only) | ||
| 2014 | $127 | Neighbors $49.7, Legends of Oz: Dorothy Returns $4.1, Moms’ Night Out $3.8 | |
| 2013 | $152 | Great Gatsby $50.1, Peeples $4.6 | |
| 2012 | $162 | Dark Shadows $29.7 | |
| 2011 | $129 | Bridesmaids $26.2, Priest $15.0 | |
| 2010 | $131 | Robin Hood $36.1, Letters to Juliet $13.5, Just Wright $8.3 | |
| Avg 2010-13 | $141 | ||
Check back tomorrow for more complete Weekend Studio Estimates based on Saturday’s actual box office, as well as the International Box Office report.
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