November 12, 2011


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Written by: Mitch Metcalf
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>THERE IS A GOD!  Adam Sandler’s latest movie in which he plays a brother and a sister will not be the #1 movie of the weekend.  While not a flop, it failed to open to the $30-35 million his fans usually pony up.  Best of all, the film will not come close to the $100 million usually generated by his work in North America.  An end to an era?  Not at all.  But at least a significant portion of the audience is coming to their senses.  Immortals was the big surprise, on track to take the weekend crown by a mile, and Puss in Boots rolls on, down only 20% or so again this weekend.  Total volume for the weekend is looking like $135 million, up 21% from the same weekend last year and up 15% from the weekend’s average the last four years.

Immortals blew past its forecast ($15.0 million Friday for an expected $36 million this weekend versus a forecast of $22.5 million). The 300-clone from Relativity is headed for $102 million in North America when it crosses the finish line, according to the ShowBuzzDaily Domestic Final estimate.  International numbers for all recent films will be in our overseas round-up late Sunday.  Critics have been not been particularly supportive (37% positive at RottenTomatoes).     

Jack and Jill slightly exceeded its forecast ($9.85 million Friday for an estimated $26.5 million opening weekend, compared to a $22.5 million prediction).  The latest Adam Sandler comedy is headed for $79 million in North America.  Critics nationwide have been repulsed (only 3% positive at RottenTomatoes).

J. Edgar will open at expectations ($4.25 million Friday for an estimated $11.5 million opening weekend, compared to a $12.0 million prediction).  Playing in far fewer theaters (1,910) than the other openers (over 3,000+ each), this movie really should have had a solid per theater number (Clint Eastwood, diCaprio, historical drama, Oscar hopes).  But J. Edgar will average a little over $6,000 per theater, far below the $11,500 figure for Immortals and below even Jack and Jill‘s $7,700 average.  Yikes.  

Down a preliminary 20% from last weekend (another very good hold), Puss in Boots is still very much in the mix, with its Domestic Final estimate upgraded yet again to $149 million.  

In case you missed them, click to see this week’s Weekend Predictions
November 11-13, 2011    Pre-Wknd    Wknd            Showbuzz
(millions)              Showbuzz    Early   Friday  Domestic
                        Forecast    Proj.   Actual   Final*

Puss In Boots (DW/Par)   [$25.0]    $28.0   $ 9.0     $149+
Jack and Jill (Sony)     [$22.5]    $26.5   $ 9.8     $ 79
Immortals (Rel)          [$22.5]    $36.0   $15.0     $102
Tower Heist (Uni)        [$13.0]    $13.7   $ 4.9     $ 80
J. Edgar (WB)            [$12.0]    $11.5   $ 4.2     $ 33
A Very Harold & Kumar WB [$ 6.0]    $ 5.7   $ 2.3     $ 38-
In Time (Fox)            [$ 4.5]    $ 4.2   $         $ 40

Paranormal Activity 3 Par[$ 4.0]    $ 3.7   $ 1.4     $106-
Footloose (Par)          [$ 3.2]    $ 2.8   $ 1.0     $ 56
Real Steel (DW/DIS)      [$ 2.2]    $ 1.9   $ 0.7     $ 87

Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend.  The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets).  The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column).  The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America.  A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade. 

Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like a weak $135 million total, up 21% from the same calendar weekend last year (when Unstoppable opened to $23 million and two others opened to a combined $21 million).         

Top 12 Films: Weekend #45

     Volume    Movies Opening Each Weekend (millions)
2011  $135  Immortals $36, Jack and Jill $26, J. Edgar $12
2010  $112  Unstoppable $23, Skyline $12, Morning Glory $9    
2009  $129  2012 $65, Pirate Radio $3

2008  $138  Quantum of Solace $68
2007  $ 93  Beowulf $28, Mr Magorium’s Wonder Emporium $10
Avg   $118 

Next Weekend
Opening next week are Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn (Part One) from Summit, Happy Feet Two from Warner Brothers and The Descendants from Fox Searchlight.  Those movies will be compared to Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1 ($125 million opening weekend) and The Next Three Days ($6.5 million). 

Look for updates of the weekend box office on Sunday, based on the Saturday actual numbers.

About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.