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Twilight’s latest, Breaking Dawn Part 1, is opening close to what we expected, but Happy Feet Two was not as able to weather the storm as strongly as we projected. Overall, the weekend is running 20% ahead of the same weekend last year, not a bad accomplishment given Harry Potter was in the mix last year.
Down an okay 42% from last weekend (not bad in the face of the Twilight tidal wave), Puss in Boots has been upgraded one more time, with a Domestic Final estimate now up to $165 million.
In case you missed them, click to see this week’s Weekend Predictions
November 18-20, 2011 Pre-Wknd Wknd Showbuzz
(millions) Showbuzz Early Friday Domestic
Forecast Proj. Actual Final
Twilight Breaking 1 (Sum)[$148.5] $140.0 $72.0 $293
Happy Feet Two (WB) [$39.5] $23.0 $ 5.9 $ 88
Puss In Boots (DW/Par) [$12.5] $14.3 $ 3.4 $165+
Immortals (Rel) [$14.0] $12.3 $ 3.8 $ 78
Jack and Jill (Sony) [$12.0] $12.2 $ 3.5 $ 65-
Tower Heist (Uni) [$ 6.5] $ 7.2 $ — $ 71-
J. Edgar (WB) [$ 6.5] $ 6.0 $ 1.8 $ 34
A Very Harold & Kumar WB [$ 3.0] $ 2.8 $ 0.9 $ 36
In Time (Fox) [$ 2.0] $ 1.6 $ — $ 37
Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.
Total Box Office Volume
The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like a very good $224 million total, up 20% from the same calendar weekend last year (when Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1 opened to $125 million).
Top 12 Films: Weekend #46
Volume Movies Opening Each Weekend (millions)
2011 $224 Twilight Breaking Dawn 1 $140, Happy Feet Two $23
2010 $186 Harry Potter Deathly Hallows 1 $125
2009 $250 Twilight New Moon $143, Blind Side $34
2008 $157 Twilight $70, Bolt $26
2007 $151 Enchanted $34, This Christmas $18, Hitman $13
2007-10
Avg $186
Next Weekend
Opening next week are Arthur Christmas from Sony, The Muppets from Disney and Hugo from Paramount. Those movies will be compared to Tangled ($49 million opening weekend), Burlesque ($12 million), Love and Other Drugs ($10 million) and Faster ($8.5 million).
Look for updates of the weekend box office on Sunday, based on the Saturday actual numbers.
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