November 10, 2012


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Written by: Mitch Metcalf
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Weekend #45 is on pace to exceed the multi-year average for this weekend by well over 20%.  Skyfall matched our bullish ShowbuzzDaily forecast and is on track to be the best-opening and best-grossing Bond film ever.   Wreck-It Ralph, Flight and even Argo continue to do solid business, rounding out the current slate of films nicely.  Previewing at 11 theaters yesterday,  Lincoln is on track to average over $86,000 per theater (for an excellent $950,000 preview weekend).   

Skyfall from Sony opened with about $30.8 million Friday and is on pace for $82 million Friday-Sunday, almost exactly the $81.0 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast issued Wednesday.  The opening weekend translates to a $23,400 average at 3,505 theaters (over four times greater than the $5,333 average for all wide-release films the last two years).  With 93% positive reviews at RottenTomatoes, the film should have better than average playability for a Bond film and should finish with around $194 million domestic.

Recent James Bond Films:

Quantum of Solace Nov 2008  $67.5 million domestic opening, $168.4 million domestic gross, $586.1 million worldwide

Casino Royale Nov 2006 $40.8 million domestic opening, $167.4 million domestic gross, $594.2 million worldwide

Die Another Day Nov 2002 $47.1 million domestic opening, $160.9 million domestic gross, $431.9 million worldwide

The World Is Not Enough Nov 1999 $35.5 million domestic opening, $126.9 million domestic gross, $361.8 million worldwide

*Daniel Craig as 007 since 2006; Pierce Brosnan before.

Weekend 45: Nov 9-11, 2012 ($ millions)
Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast Early Weekend Estimate Actual Friday Gross Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj.
Skyfall Sony [81.0] 82.0 30.8 194
Wreck-It Ralph Dis [30.7] 31.5 7.84 177
Flight Par [15.2] 15.0 4.25 88
Argo WB [7.2] 6.70 1.84 105
Taken 2 Fox [3.3] 4.10 1.18 142
Man with the Iron Fists Uni [3.4] 2.40 .739 17
Cloud Atlas WB [2.7] 2.65 .710 30
Here Comes the Boom Sony [2.0] 2.60 .700 45
Pitch Perfect Uni [2.0] 2.50 .786 67
Hotel Transylvania Sony [2.7] 2.10 .510 150
Paranormal Activity 4 Par [2.0] 2.00 .621 52

Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend.  The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets).  The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column).  The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America.  A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.


In case you missed them, click to see this week’s Weekend Predictions.


Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like a very good $155 million total Friday-Sunday, up 23% from the average comparable weekend the last four years but up 23% from the same weekend last year.

($ millions)
WEEKEND #45 Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only)
2012 $155 Skyfall $82
2011 $126 Immortals $32, Jack and Jill $25, J. Edgar $11
2010 $112 Unstoppable $23, Skyline $12, Morning Glory $9
2009 $129 2012 $65, Pirate Radio $3
2008 $138 Quantum of Solace $67.5
Avg 2008-11 $126

Check back tomorrow morning for updated weekend figures and revised estimates for domestic final grosses.

About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.