October 27, 2012


The winning streak is over after four straight up weekends.  Weekend #43 will just about match the multi-year average for this weekend and actually under-perform the same weekend last year.  None of the openers this weekend will make an impact on the box office beyond next week, while Argo continues to quietly pack them in as it marches toward $100 million domestic and possibly more if the Oscar buzz continues.     

Cloud Atlas from Warner Brothers and the minds of Andy and Larry Lana Wachowski opened with $3.4 million Friday and is on pace for $10.3 million Friday-Sunday, somewhat below the $12.6 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast issued Wednesday.  The opening weekend translates to a $5,100 average at 2,008 theaters (near the $5,333 average for all wide-release films the last two years).  With 61% positive reviews now at RottenTomatoes, the film should have average playability and finish with around $34 million domestic.

Silent Hill: Revelation 3D from Open Road Films opened with $3.5 million Friday and is on track for $8.7 million Friday-Sunday, also below the $11.4 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast.  The film should average a poor $2,900 per theater this weekend at 2,933 theaters.  Sporting a frightful 8% positive review index at RottenTomatoes, the Silent Hill sequel should leave North American theaters with about $13 million, well below the $47 million domestic gross for the original Silent Hill in April 2006.

Fun Size from Paramount bombed with $1.3 million Friday and is on track for $3.4 million Friday-Sunday, yet again below the ShowbuzzDaily forecast of $6.4 million.  That’s an awful $1,250 average at 3,014 theaters.  With 28% positive reviews, Fun Size should exit quickly with $7 million domestic.

Chasing Mavericks from 2oth Century Fox opened with $820,000 Friday and is on track for maybe $2.5 million Friday-Sunday, also below the $4.3 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast.  The film should average $1,200 per theater this weekend at 2,002 theaters.  With 34% positive reviews, Chasing Mavericks should leave North American theaters rapidly with about $5 million.

Weekend 43: Oct 26-28, 2012 ($ millions)
Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast Early Weekend Estimate Actual Friday Gross Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj.
Argo WB [12.9] 12.9 4.0 98
Cloud Atlas WB [12.6] 10.3 3.4 34
Hotel Transylvania Sony [9.6] 9.3 2.6 152
Paranormal Activity 4 Par [9.3] 9.0 3.1 55
Silent Hill: Revelation 3D Open Road [11.4] 8.7 3.5 13
Taken 2 Fox [7.7] 8.1 2.6 133
Alex Cross Sum/LG [5.7] 5.4 1.7 28
Sinister Sum/LG [4.8] 5.3 1.7 52
Here Comes the Boom Sony [5.4] 5.2 1.6 42
Pitch Perfect Universal [4.4] 4.0 1.4 67
Fun Size Par [6.3] 3.4 1.3 7
Chasing Mavericks Fox [4.3] 2.5 .82 5

Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend.  The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets).  The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column).  The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America.  A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.


In case you missed them, click to see this week’s Weekend Predictions.


Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like an unimpressive $84 million total Friday-Sunday, even with the average comparable weekend the last four years and down 10% from the same weekend last year.

($ millions)
WEEKEND #43 Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only)
2012 $84 Cloud Atlas $10, Silent Hill Revelation $9, Fun Size $4
2011 $94 Puss in Boots $34, In Time $12, Rum Diary $5
2010 $85 Saw 3D $22
2009 $83 Michael Jackson’s This Is It $23
2008 $74 Zack & Miri Make Porno $10, Changeling $9
Avg 2008-11 $84

Check back tomorrow morning for updated weekend figures and revised estimates for domestic final grosses.

About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.