Based on Friday’s grosses, Weekend #39 of 2013 looks like an okay $98 million for the top 12 films, up 5% from the average for the same weekend the past few years.
Opening at 4,001 theaters Friday, Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2 from Sony grossed $9.3 million Friday and is on track for a $35.5 million opening weekend (missing the $45.0 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast). The film is pacing toward a three-day average of $8,900 per theater for the weekend (above the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years). Critical sentiment is fairly positive (60% positive overall at RottenTomatoes and 74% positive with top critics). Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2 is headed for $105 million total domestic, below the $124.9 million for Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs (which opened with $30.3 million 9.18-20.2009).
Opening at 2,297 theaters Friday, Rush from Universal grossed $3.7 million Friday and is pacing toward a $11.0 million opening weekend (close to our $12.5 million forecast). The film is pacing toward a mediocre three-day average of $4,800 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment is strong (87% positive overall at RottenTomatoes and 92% positive with top critics). Rush is headed for $41 million total domestic.
Opening at 2,422 theaters Friday, Don Jon from Relativity grossed $3.3 million Friday and is pacing toward a $9.5 million opening weekend (below our $11.0 million forecast). The film is pacing toward a soft three-day average of $3,900 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment is solid (81% positive overall at RottenTomatoes and 82% positive with top critics). Don Jon is headed for $35 million total domestic.
Opening at 2,027 theaters Friday, Baggage Claim from 20th Century Fox grossed $3.3 million Friday and is headed for a $9.4 million opening weekend (almost exactly our $9.0 million forecast). The film is pacing toward a mediocre three-day average of $4,600 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment is weak (14% positive overall at RottenTomatoes and only 4% positive with top critics). Baggage Claim is headed for a quick exit from theaters and maybe $22 million total domestic.
Prisoners remains on track for $69 million total domestic, while Insidious Chapter 2 has been downgraded slightly to $77 million domestic.
| Weekend 39: September 27-29, 2013 | ($ millions) | |||||
| Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast | Early Weekend Estimate | Actual Friday Gross | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | |||
| Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2 | Sony | [45.0] | 35.5 | 9.3 | 105 | |
| Prisoners | WB | [12.7] | 11.2 | 3.4 | 69 | |
| Rush | Uni | [12.5] | 11.0 | 3.7 | 41 | |
| Don Jon | Rel | [11.0] | 9.5 | 3.3 | 35 | |
| Baggage Claim | Fox | [9.0] | 9.4 | 3.3 | 22 | |
| Insidious Chapter 2 | FilmDis | [6.7] | 6.0 | 2.1 | 77 | |
| The Family | Rel | [3.6] | 3.6 | 1.1 | 38 | |
| We’re the Millers | WB | [3.3] | 2.9 | .84 | 150 | |
| Instructions Not Included | LG/Sum | [4.0] | 3.1 | .78 | 46 | |
| Lee Daniels’ The Butler | Weins | [2.8] | 2.5 | .69 | 120 | |
Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.
In case you missed them, click to see this week’s Weekend Predictions.
Total Box Office Volume
The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $98 million total Friday-Sunday, up 5% from the four-year average for the comparable weekend but down 8% from the same weekend last year.
| WEEKEND 39 | ($ millions) | ||
| Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films | Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only) | ||
| 2013 | $98 | Cloudy 2 $35.5, Rush $11.0, Don Jon $9.5, Baggage Claim $9.4 | |
| 2012 | $107 | Hotel Transylvania $42.5, Looper $20.8, Won’t Back Down $2.6 | |
| 2011 | $90 | Courageous $9.1, 50/50 $8.6, Dream House $8.1, What’s Your Number? $5.4 | |
| 2010 | $86 | The Social Network $22.4, Case 39 $5.4, Let Me In $5.1 | |
| 2009 | $92 | Zombieland $24.7, Toy Story 3D $12.5, Invention of Lying $7.0 | |
| Avg 2009-12 | $94 | ||
Check back tomorrow for more complete Weekend Studio Estimates based on Saturday’s actual box office, as well as the International Box Office report.
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