The 36th weekend of 2012 is looking like $50 million for the Top 12 films Friday-Sunday, near recent record lows for box office volume. Equally weak weekends were last seen in 2003 and 2008. The Possession is holding on to the top spot this weekend (with less than $10 million for the #1 film, yikes), and we have upgraded the Domestic Final Projection for the demonic horror film to $52 million. The two openers this weekend crashed and burned.
The Words from CBS Films opened with $1.6 million Friday, putting it on pace for $4.6 million Friday-Sunday (significantly below the already bearish $7.0 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast issued Wednesday). The opening weekend translates to a $1,625 average at 2,801 theaters (well below the $5,333 average for all wide-release films the last two years). The Words should leave theaters with a $9 million total domestic gross.
The Cold Light of Day from Summit grossed $0.6 million Friday, on track for $1.9 million Friday-Sunday ($1,240 average at 1,511 theaters), just below the $2.2 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast. Cold Light should exit promptly and finish with about $3 million total in North America.
In case you missed them, click to see this week’s Weekend Predictions.
| Weekend 36: Sep 7-9, 2012 | ($ millions) | |||||
| Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast | Early Weekend Estimate | Actual Friday Gross | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | |||
| The Possession | LG | [8.0] | 9.2 | 2.9 | 52 | |
| Lawless | Weins | [5.2] | 5.7 | 1.8 | 39 | |
| The Words | CBS | [7.0] | 4.6 | 1.6 | 9 | |
| Expendables 2 | LG | [4.6] | 4.5 | 1.3 | 88 | |
| ParaNorman | Focus | [3.3] | 3.9 | 0.8 | 57 | |
| Bourne Legacy | Uni | [4.0] | 3.8 | 1.1 | 115 | |
| Odd Life of Timothy Green | Disney | [3.0] | 3.4 | 0.9 | 51 | |
| The Campaign | WB | [2.9] | 3.3 | 1.0 | 89 | |
| 2016 Obama’s America | Rocky Mtn | [4.8] | 3.2 | 1.1 | 35 | |
| Dark Knight Rises | WB | [3.2] | 2.9 | 0.9 | 443 | |
| Hope Springs | Sony | [2.7] | 2.8 | 0.8 | 67 | |
| Premium Rush | Sony | [—] | 2.1 | 0.6 | 23 | |
| Cold Light of Day | Summit | [2.2] | 1.9 | 0.6 | 3 | |
Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.
Total Box Office Volume
The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like a hideous $50 million total Friday-Sunday, down 24% from the same weekend last year and down 32% from the average comparable weekend the last four years. This matches the $50.3 million weekend back in September 5-7, 2008. And you have to go back to 2003 (also September 5-7) to find an equally terrible showing ($50.5 million for the top 12 films).
| ($ millions) | |||
| WEEKEND #36 | Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films | Top Movies Opening Each Weekend | |
| 2012 | $50 | The Words $4.6, Cold Light of Day $1.9 | |
| 2011 | $65 | Contagion $22, Warrior $5, Bucky Larson $1 | |
| 2010 | $66 | Resident Evil: Afterlife $27 | |
| 2009 | $76 | TP I Can Do Bad $23, 9 $11, Sorority Row $5 | |
| 2008 | $86 | Burn After Reading $19, Family That Preys $17 | |
| Avg 2008-11 | $73 | ||
Check back tomorrow morning for updated weekend figures and revised estimates for domestic final grosses.
About the Author
