February 12, 2012


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Written by: Mitch Metcalf
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>Four new movies join the worldwide box office chart this weekend, with Journey 2: The Mysterious Island being the early standout.  Released overseas a week before this weekend’s North American opening, Journey 2 already has an overseas total of $75 million to date, nearly matching our total domestic projection of $79 million.  The first in the series, Journey to the Center of the Earth (released July 11, 2008 also by Warner Brothers), made it to just under $242 million worldwide (about $102 million domestic and $140 million overseas).  Journey 2 seems destined for a lower domestic total but a similar international haul.  Click “read more” to see the updated weekly chart.

The Vow and Safe House both have a relatively slow start overseas, each with $10 million to date.  Although both films are headed for similar domestic final grosses, we’ll give the slight edge to The Vow overseas.  Recent successful romantic comedies have generally matched their domestic gross overseas although The Notebook was an exception (Valentine’s Day: $110 million/ $106 million domestic/ overseas, Just Go With It: $103 million/ $112 million, He’s Just Not That Into You: $94 million/ $85 million,  The Notebook: $81 million/ $35 million).  We’ll give The Vow an overseas target of $110 million, for a final worldwide target of $226 million. 

In contrast, recent successful Denzel Washington action films domestically have somewhat under-performed overseas with the notable exception of American Gangster (The Book of Eli: $95 million/ $62 million, Training Day: $77 million/ $28 million, Man on Fire: $78 million/ $52 million, American Gangster: $130 million/ $136 million).  We’ll give Safe House an overseas target of $80 million, for a final worldwide target of $194 million.

The re-release of Star Wars: Episode 1 — The Phantom Menace 3D has grossed $21 million overseas to date. 

About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.