February 22, 2015

Oscar Ballot Tip Sheet

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Written by: Mitch Metcalf
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In case you are staring at an Oscar ballot this afternoon or this evening and have no idea what to select, especially in the “down ballot” categories such as documentaries, foreign language film, or the technical awards, never fear.  Lean on the professional oddsmakers to help to separate the wheat from the chaff.  Instead of simply guessing on a category that is a total mystery to you, the chart below will help you narrow down your selection to the nominees that have a reasonable shot of winning.

The nominees with a green box to the left are Favorites: with odds near even money.  The yellow nominees are real Contenders, with odds under 10:1, usually around 3:1 or 5:1.  And the red nominees are the true Long Shots: odds over 10:1, usually well over, in the 50:1 range or more.

Enjoy the show.

Oscar ballot 2015 Tip Sheet 1 of 2 V3

In case your Oscar ballot has all the categories, you are really going to need the second chart below.

Oscar ballot 2015 Tip Sheet 2 of 2 V3


About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.