January 4, 2013

OSCAR ODDS: An Early Look

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Written by: Mitch Metcalf
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As the movie awards season starts to get going, here’s an early look at how the betting odds are shaping up on the Internet.  Lincoln is the clear favorite for Best Picture, with bookmakers offering a little under $2 on a $1 wager.  Steven Spielberg is also the favorite for his direction of Lincoln, but he is closely bunched with Ben Affleck (Argo) and Kathryn Bigelow (Zero Dark Thirty).  Best Director could be one of the best races to watch on Oscar night.

OSCAR WINNINGS (Payout on $1 Bet)
Lincoln 1.73 1.91
Les Miserables 3.25 5
Zero Dark Thirty 5 6
Argo 7 8
Life of Pi 17 21
Silver Linings Playbook 17 26
Steven Spielberg/ Lincoln 2.00 2.25
Ben Affleck/ Argo 3.00 4.00
Kathryn Bigelow/ Zero Dark Thirty 3.50 4.00
Tom Hooper/ Les Miserables 7 9
Ang Lee/ Life of Pi 11 21
David O Russell/ Silver Linings Playbook 26 34
courtesy: as of 1.3.2013

There is absolutely no contest in the Best Actor category, according to the odds makers.  Give Daniel Day-Lewis the Oscar for his portrayal of the 16th President.  In contrast, Tommy Lee Jones (Rep. Thaddeus Stevens in Lincoln) and Philip Seymour Hoffman (Lancaster Dodd in The Master) are headed for a duel for Best Supporting Actor, although DeNiro and even Arkin are interesting at the $10+ winning levels.

Daniel Day-Lewis/ Lincoln 1.20 1.29
Denzel Washington/ Flight 6 10
Hugh Jackman/ Les Miserables 8 11
Joaquin Phoenix/ The Master 7 17
John Hawkes/ The Sessions 12 17
Bradley Cooper/ Silver Linings Playbook 15 26
Philip Seymour Hoffman/ The Master 2.20 2.50
Tommy Lee Jones/ Lincoln 2.20 2.75
Leonardo DiCaprio/ Django Unchained 5 7
Robert DeNiro/ Silver Linings Playbook 9 11
Alan Arkin/ Argo 10 17
Russell Crowe/ Les Miserables 9 21

In the Actress categories, Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook) has the edge for Best Actress, although Jessica Chastain is very close behind.  In the Best Supporting Actress category (the award that often leads to anonymity and the end of a career), Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables) is virtually guaranteed to win (with the lowest payout of any of the major categories).

Jennifer Lawrence/ Silver Linings Playbook 1.40 1.57
Jessica Chastain/ Zero Dark Thirty 2.75 3.25
Sally Field/ Lincoln 4.50 5.50
Anne Hathaway/ Les Miserables 5.00 5.50
Emannuelle Riva/ Amour 9 17
Quvenzhane Wallis/ Beasts of the Southern Wild 13 26
Anne Hathaway/ Les Miserables 1.12 1.17
Helen Hunt/ The Sessions 9 10
Sally Field/ Lincoln 9 10
Amy Adams/ The Master 11 17
Nicole Kidman/ The Paperboy 26 26
Jacki Weaver/ Silver Linings Playbook 34 34

As the guild nominations roll out, we will update the odds and highlight the key movements up and down the charts.

About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.