>Updated Oscar odds confirm a complete snooze is in store for Sunday’s Academy Awards as The Artist and director Michel Hazanavicius are heavy favorites to win Best Picture and Best Director, bringing a very French flavor — and depressed ratings — to ABC’s telecast. Oscar ratings rise and fall based on the suspense of the major races and especially when a movie is in contention that a mass audience has actually paid to see. There is virtually no race in the Supporting Actor and Actress categories, although there might be some rooting interest in Best Actor (George Clooney vs Jean Dujardin) and Best Actress (Viola Davis vs Meryl Streep)
The Artist has moved from 1:6 odds in early February to 1:12 now, increasing its implied chances of winning from 72% to over 78%. A similar trend is seen in the Best Director race (see the updated charts below by clicking “read more”).
ACADEMY AWARDS BETTING ODDS
averages from easyodds.com
BEST PICTURE Feb 20 Feb 8
The Artist 1:12 1:6 Even more the favorite
The Descendants 10:1 6:1 Fading
Hugo 20:1 14:1 Fading
The Help 20:1 18:1 Slightly less likely
War Horse 40:1 26:1 Fading fast
Midnight in Paris 78:1 55:1 Falling out fast
Moneyball 80:1 56:1 Falling out fast
Extremely Loud & 88:1 59:1 Falling out fast
Incredibly Close
The Tree of Life 88:1 73:1 Falling out fast
BEST DIRECTOR
Michel Hazanavicius 1:9 1:6 Improving odds
Martin Scorcese 5:1 4:1 Hanging in there
Alexander Payne 20:1 13:1 Fading
Terrence Malick 40:1 37:1 Fading
Woody Allen 44:1 35:1 Fading fast
The Artist is also showing some late momentum in Best Actor with Jean Dujardin improving from 6:4 odds (about a 33% chance of winning) to 7:10 (about 49%). George Clooney (in color and with full sound) has faded from 1:2 (about a 55% chance of winning) to 11:10 (about 40%). This is the only category in which all of the long-shot nominees have a better shot of winning (even Demian Bichir from the $1.8 million grossing A Better Life has gone from 57:1 to 42:1).
In Best Actress, Viola Davis from The Help is slightly more of a favorite, moving from 5:6 (46% chance) to 4:6 (about 51%). But don’t count out Iron Lady Meryl Streep, who is certainly practicing and perfecting her shocked look (remember the Golden Globes?), holding fairly steady — 1:1 (42% chance) in early February to 11:10 (40%) now. The other three nominees in the category have fallen out of the running according to oddsmakers.
ACADEMY AWARDS BETTING ODDS
averages from easyodds.com
BEST ACTOR Feb 20 Feb 8
Jean Dujardin 7:10 6:4 Moving up to #1
George Clooney 11:10 1:2 Moving down to #2
BEST ACTRESS
Viola Davis 4:6 5:6 Improved odds
Meryl Streep 11:10 1:1 Slightly worse
Michelle Williams 19:1 14:1 Fading
Glenn Close 62:1 40:1 Fading fast
Rooney Mara 64:1 42:1 Fading fast
No significant changes in the Best Supporting Actor and Actress categories. Congratulations, Mr. Plummer and Ms. Spencer.
ACADEMY AWARDS BETTING ODDS
averages from easyodds.com
SUPPORTING ACTOR Feb 20 Feb 8
Christopher Plummer 1:50 1:25 More of a certainty
Kenneth Branagh 16:1 18:1 Moving up to distant #2
Max Von Sydow 20:1 9:1 Fading
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Octavia Spencer 1:25 1:20 Slightly stronger
Berenice Bejo 9:1 9:1 Steady
Jessica Chastain 23:1 18:1 Fading
Melissa McCarthy 44:1 32:1 Fading fast
Janet McTeer 49:1 33:1 Fading fast
Midnight in Paris remains the one to beat for Best Original Screenplay, edging up from 2:5 (about 60% chance of winning) to 2:7 (66%) The Artist is still lurking as the most likely to upset Woody Allen, now 5:2 (24% chance) although that is down from 2:1 (28%) earlier in the month. In Adapted Screenplay, The Descendants has improved from 2:5 (61%) to 1:5 (71% chance). It seems only Moneyball stands in its way (adapting the wonderful, detailed Michael Lewis book into a character-driven film was quite an achievement), but the odds are now 5:1 (14% chance) from 4:1 (17%) earlier in the month.
ACADEMY AWARDS BETTING ODDS
averages from easyodds.com
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY Feb 20 Feb 8
Midnight in Paris 2:7 2:5 Slightly improved odds
The Artist 5:2 2:1 Slightly worse chance
Bridesmaids 28:1 23:1 Up from #5 to #3
A Separation 30:1 19:1 Fading fast
Margin Call 36:1 19:1 Fading fast
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Descendants 1:5 2:5 Closing the sale
Moneyball 5:1 4:1 Relatively steady
Hugo 10:1 5:1 Fading
Tinker Tailor 17:1 14:1 Fading
Ides of March 38:1 22:1 Fading fast
On to Sunday.
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