>Courtesy of the London oddsmakers (averaging a variety of books at easyodds.com), there appears to be little suspense ahead for the Best Picture and Best Director races at this year’s Academy Awards and almost no races at all for Best Supporting Actor and Actress. Currently, The Artist is heavily favored to win Best Picture, with much better than even odds of 1:6 (suggesting a probability of winning of over 80%). The exact same odds are offered for the film’s director, Michel Hazanavicius.
The Descendants follows with odds of 6:1 (suggesting a winning probability of between 10 and 15%). The other films in the race range from 14:1 for Hugo to a snowball’s chance ratio of 73:1 for The Tree of Life. In the Best Director race, Martin Scorcese has a slightly better chance of upsetting Hazanavicius, with 4:1 odds of winning (about a 20% chance of winning for Hugo — if not for an unofficial lifetime achievement award).
The Actor and Actress categories are more interesting, with George Clooney (1:2) and Jean Dujardin (6:4) in a fairly close race for Best Actor. Feeling lucky? Go for Demian Bichir (for A Better Life) at 42:1. In the Best Actress race, two actresses are near even money: Viola Davis from The Help (5:6) and Meryl Streep the Iron Lady (1:1).
In contrast, the Academy might as well ship the Oscars to the Supporting winners, according to the oddsmakers. Christopher Plummer (1:25) and Octavia Spencer (1:20) are so heavily favored the numbers suggest around a 95% chance of winning.
The writing categories actually have some contenders. Best Original Screenplay has Midnight in Paris (2:5) favored, with The Artist (2:1) in the hunt. Odds are pretty long (a million to one?) that Woody Allen would actually be at Hollywood and Highland to pick up his Oscar for writing Midnight — so the telecast’s running time would be shortened a few minutes. The Best Adapted Screenplay has three (the most of any major category) writers with a legitimate shot: The Descendants (2:5) is the favorite but Moneyball (4:1) and Hugo (5:1) are at least in striking distance.
Of course, the real oddsmaker we trust is our critic Mitch Salem (don’t fill out an Oscar party ballot without him). In an upcoming post, he will offer his perspective on these odds, and we will update these numbers as necessary as the Academy Awards nears.
ACADEMY AWARDS BETTING ODDS
as of February 8, 2012
BEST PICTURE BEST DIRECTOR
The Artist 1:6 Michel Hazanavicius 1:6
The Descendants 6:1 Martin Scorcese 4:1
Hugo 14:1 Alexander Payne 13:1
The Help 18:1 Woody Allen 35:1
War Horse 26:1 Terrence Malick 37:1
Midnight in Paris 55:1
Moneyball 56:1
Extremely Loud & 59:1
Incredibly Close
The Tree of Life 73:1
BEST ACTOR BEST ACTRESS
George Clooney 1:2 Viola Davis 5:6
Jean Dujardin 6:4 Meryl Streep 1:1
Brad Pitt 18:1 Michelle Williams 14:1
Gary Oldman 22:1 Glenn Close 40:1
Demian Bichir 42:1 Rooney Mara 42:1
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Christopher Plummer 1:25 Octavia Spencer 1:20
Kenneth Branagh 9:1 Berenice Bejo 9:1
Max Von Sydow 18:1 Jessica Chastain 18:1
Nick Nolte 32:1 Melissa McCarthy 32:1
Jonah Hill 46:1 Janet McTeer 33:1
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Midnight in Paris 2:5 The Descendants 2:5
The Artist 2:1 Moneyball 4:1
A Separation 19:1 Hugo 5:1
Margin Call 19:1 Tinker Tailor… 14:1
Bridesmaids 23:1 Ides of March 22:1
source: average of odds posted at easyodds.com
Favorites and odds near even bolded
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