Let’s face it: anyone with an interest in the matter has been circling the same basic list of titles and names for weeks now, if not months, and the truth is that as much fun as it would be for some shocking surprise to find its way into tomorrow’s Oscar nominations–Mud or Brie Larson, say–the honorees are likely to come from that group. So no startling stabs in the dark here, just another try (of the many, many, many around) to guess just where the Academy’s head is right now.
Notes: The following are in alphabetical order. Also, the extreme weirdness of the Best Picture rules provide that there could be anywhere from 5 to 10 nominees in that category. I’m going with 9, the same number we’ve had in the past 2 years.
BEST PICTURE
12 YEARS A SLAVE
AMERICAN HUSTLE
CAPTAIN PHILLIPS
DALLAS BUYERS CLUB
HER
GRAVITY
NEBRASKA
PHILOMENA
THE WOLF OF WALL STREET
LEAST SURPRISING SURPRISES: INSIDE LLEWYN DAVIS, SAVING MR. BANKS
NOT OUT OF IT: BLUE JASMINE, THE BUTLER, ENOUGH SAID
BEST DIRECTOR
Alfonso Cuaron, GRAVITY
Paul Greenglass, CAPTAIN PHILLIPS
Steve McQueen, 12 YEARS A SLAVE
David O. Russell, AMERICAN HUSTLE
Martin Scorsese, THE WOLF OF WALL STREET
LEAST SURPRISING SURPRISES: Alexander Payne, NEBRASKA; Joel & Ethan Coen, INSIDE LLEWYN DAVIS; Spike Jonze, HER
NOT OUT OF IT: Stephen Frears, PHILOMENA
BEST ACTOR
Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 YEARS A SLAVE
Bruce Dern, NEBRASKA
Leonardo DiCaprio, THE WOLF OF WALL STREET
Tom Hanks, CAPTAIN PHILLIPS
Matthew McConaughey, DALLAS BUYERS CLUB
LEAST SURPRISING SURPRISES: Robert Redford, ALL IS LOST; Forest Whitaker, THE BUTLER
NOT OUT OF IT: Christian Bale, AMERICAN HUSTLE; Joaquin Phoemix, HER; Oscar Isaac, INSIDE LLEWYN DAVIS
BEST ACTRESS
Amy Adams, AMERICAN HUSTLE
Cate Blanchett, BLUE JASMINE
Sandra Bullock, GRAVITY
Judi Dench, PHILOMENA
Emma Thompson, SAVING MR. BANKS
LEAST SURPRISING SURPRISE: Meryl Streep, AUGUST: OSAGE COUNTY
NOT OUT OF IT: Julia Louis-Dreyfus, ENOUGH SAID
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Barkhad Abdi, CAPTAIN PHILLIPS
Bradley Cooper, AMERICAN HUSTLE
Michael Fassbender, 12 YEARS A SLAVE
James Gandolfini, ENOUGH SAID
Jared Leto, DALLAS BUYERS CLUB
LEAST SURPRISING SURPRISE: Daniel Bruhl, RUSH
NOT OUT OF IT: Jonah Hill, THE WOLF OF WALL STREET; Steve Coogan, PHILOMENA
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Jennifer Lawrence, AMERICAN HUSTLE
Lupita Nyong’o, 12 YEARS A SLAVE
Julia Roberts, AUGUST: OSAGE COUNTY
June Squibb, NEBRASKA
Oprah Winfrey, THE BUTLER
LEAST SURPRISING SURPRISE: Sally Hawkins, BLUE JASMINE
NOT OUT OF IT: Sarah Paulson, 12 YEARS A SLAVE; Jennifer Garner, DALLAS BUYERS CLUB
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
AMERICAN HUSTLE
BLUE JASMINE
HER
INSIDE LLEWYN DAVIS
NEBRASKA
LEAST SURPRISING SURPRISE: ENOUGH SAID
NOT OUT OF IT: DALLAS BUYERS CLUB, FRUITVALE STATION
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
12 YEARS A SLAVE
BEFORE MIDNIGHT
CAPTAIN PHILLIPS
PHILOMENA
THE WOLF OF WALL STREET
LEAST SURPRISING SURPRISE: AUGUST: OSAGE COUNTY
NOT OUT OF IT: BLUE IS THE WARMEST COLOR
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