April 21, 2012



According to preliminary numbers at Deadline, THINK LIKE A MAN (Screen Gems/Sony) is overperforming in a big way, and should easily take the first non-Hunger Games weekend in over a month.  Man‘s opening day is estimated at $12M, and assuming a Tyler Perry level of frontloading (specifically Why Did I Get Married Too, which had a $12.2M opening day 2 years ago), that should get it to around a $29M opening weekend, and a $60M total, terrific for a low-budget comedy.  THE LUCKY ONE (Warner Bros) is also opening well, with a $9M Friday that should reach $23-25M for the weekend–not in a league with Dear John ($30.5M opening weekend) or The Vow ($41.2M), but considerably better than Letters to Juliet ($13.5M) and Nights in Rodanthe ($13.4M).  As expected, Disney’s CHIMPANZEE is lagging with a $3.5M Friday that should mean a weekend of about $10M, still 50% better than its Disneynature predecessors Oceans and African Cats

All streaks must come to an end, and THE HUNGER GAMES (Lionsgate/Summit) will fall to 3rd place this weekend with around $12-13M, for a total of about $355M.  That would make it the 19th highest-grossing film in US history, possibly with enough juice left before it’s done to beat the final Harry Potter at #13.  (Thanks to the disappointing performance of Wrath of the Titans, Hunger will get a little jolt from a 1-week return to IMAX theatres next week, before The Avengers arrives on May 4.)  
THE THREE STOOGES (20th) and CABIN IN THE WOODS (Lionsgate) will both fall around a standard 50% in their 2d weekends, which is a little more of a drop than Stooges might have hoped for.  AMERICAN REUNION (Universal) should take a similar fall, and–somewhat surprisingly, based on these early numbers–TITANIC 3D (Paramount) is looking at a more severe 60% decline.  
Stay with SHOWBUZZDAILY all weekend for updated boxoffice and analysis!  


About the Author

Mitch Salem
MITCH SALEM has worked on the business side of the entertainment industry for 20 years, as a senior business affairs executive and attorney for such companies as NBC, ABC, USA, Syfy, Bravo, and BermanBraun Productions, and before that, at the NY law firm of Weil, Gotshal & Manges. During all that, he has more or less constantly been going to the movies and watching TV, and writing about both since the 1980s. His film reviews also currently appear on and In addition, he is co-writer of an episode of the television series "Felicity."