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According to preliminary numbers at Deadline, THINK LIKE A MAN (Screen Gems/Sony) is overperforming in a big way, and should easily take the first non-Hunger Games weekend in over a month. Man‘s opening day is estimated at $12M, and assuming a Tyler Perry level of frontloading (specifically Why Did I Get Married Too, which had a $12.2M opening day 2 years ago), that should get it to around a $29M opening weekend, and a $60M total, terrific for a low-budget comedy. THE LUCKY ONE (Warner Bros) is also opening well, with a $9M Friday that should reach $23-25M for the weekend–not in a league with Dear John ($30.5M opening weekend) or The Vow ($41.2M), but considerably better than Letters to Juliet ($13.5M) and Nights in Rodanthe ($13.4M). As expected, Disney’s CHIMPANZEE is lagging with a $3.5M Friday that should mean a weekend of about $10M, still 50% better than its Disneynature predecessors Oceans and African Cats.
All streaks must come to an end, and THE HUNGER GAMES (Lionsgate/Summit) will fall to 3rd place this weekend with around $12-13M, for a total of about $355M. That would make it the 19th highest-grossing film in US history, possibly with enough juice left before it’s done to beat the final Harry Potter at #13. (Thanks to the disappointing performance of Wrath of the Titans, Hunger will get a little jolt from a 1-week return to IMAX theatres next week, before The Avengers arrives on May 4.)
THE THREE STOOGES (20th) and CABIN IN THE WOODS (Lionsgate) will both fall around a standard 50% in their 2d weekends, which is a little more of a drop than Stooges might have hoped for. AMERICAN REUNION (Universal) should take a similar fall, and–somewhat surprisingly, based on these early numbers–TITANIC 3D (Paramount) is looking at a more severe 60% decline.
Stay with SHOWBUZZDAILY all weekend for updated boxoffice and analysis!
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