April 28, 2012



Despite all Universal‘s efforts to imprint audiences with the idea that THE FIVE-YEAR ENGAGEMENT is some kind of quasi-sequel to Bridesmaids (it’s not), preliminary numbers at Deadline show the movie to be underperforming badly.  Its $3.7M Friday was only in 3rd place for the day, well below the $6M opening day the same creative team’s Forgetting Sarah Marshall earned on its opening day in 2008.  Sarah ended up with a $17.7M weekend, while based on these numbers, Engagement will likely be more like a tepid $11M.   That would put it neck-and-neck among the weekend’s openings with THE PIRATES! BAND OF MISFITS (Sony), which had a $2.8M Friday but should have a much bigger Saturday due to family matinee audiences, and also get to just about an $11M weekend.  SAFE (Lionsgate/Summit) and THE RAVEN (Relativity) had similar Fridays to Pirates, but won’t have its Saturday bump, and are likely headed to forgettable $7M weekends.  

With such weak openings as competition, THINK LIKE A MAN (Screen Gems/Sony) looks like it will easily take a 2d consecutive weekend, with a $5.2M Friday that should mean $15-16M for the weekend.  That would be a decline of a little over 50%, pretty good for what Hollywood likes to call the “urban” genre (Tyler Perry’s movies tend to take around a 60% hit in their 2d weekends).  THE LUCKY ONE (Warners) should go down by a similar percentage to $11-12M for the weekend, but that’s less good for a soap (The Vow and Dear John both had less than 50% declines in Weekend 2).  CHIMPANZEE (Disney) should go down about 50% to $5M or so, a better hold than the 58-60% drops for African Cats and Oceans.
Meanwhile, THE HUNGER GAMES (Lionsgate/Summit) keeps chugging along, down only about 25% from the previous Friday for what should be around a $11M 6th weekend, which should guarantee it to outgross the final Harry Potter (barring a complete collapse next weekend when The Avengers arrives).  
Stay with SHOWBUZZDAILY all weekend for updated boxoffice and analysis!


About the Author

Mitch Salem
MITCH SALEM has worked on the business side of the entertainment industry for 20 years, as a senior business affairs executive and attorney for such companies as NBC, ABC, USA, Syfy, Bravo, and BermanBraun Productions, and before that, at the NY law firm of Weil, Gotshal & Manges. During all that, he has more or less constantly been going to the movies and watching TV, and writing about both since the 1980s. His film reviews also currently appear on and In addition, he is co-writer of an episode of the television series "Felicity."