July 14, 2013

Weekend Studio Estimates JULY 12-14

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Written by: Mitch Metcalf
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Based on Friday’s and Saturday’s grosses, Weekend #28 of 2013 looks like a decent $191 million for the top 12 films, up 5% from the comparable weekend the last few years.  It was a pretty good weekend for the ShowbuzzDaily Weekend Forecast, with the top movies in the correct rank order and most films within a few million dollars of forecast.

Opening at 3,491 theaters Friday, Grown Ups 2 from Sony grossed $16.3 million on Friday and a just okay $14.6 million Saturday, now on track for a $42.5 million opening weekend (somewhat below the $45.5 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast). The film is pacing toward a three-day average of $12,200 per theater for the weekend (above the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years). Critical sentiment is hateful: just 7% positive overall at RottenTomatoes (with top critics a similar 9% positive). Grown Ups 2 is headed for $115 million total domestic, significantly below the $162.0 million domestic total for Grown Ups (released June 25, 2010 and suffering a similar 10% positive critics score with 8% positive among top critics).

Opening at 3,275 theaters Wednesday, Pacific Rim from Warner Brothers grossed $14.6 million on Friday and $12.8 million Saturday, now on track for a $38.3 million opening weekend (almost hitting the $39 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast). The film is averaging $11,700 per theater for the weekend. As with most films directed by the very gifted Guillermo del Toro, critical sentiment for Pacific Rim is actually fairly good: 72% positive at RottenTomatoes with all critics (and top critics a similar 67% positive), and opening night audiences gave it a reported A- CinemaScore. But the ridiculous premise of the gigantic battling robots creates a very real ceiling for a movie that cost over $200 million to make and another $75 million to market. Pacific Rim is headed for maybe $109 million total domestic.

With a decent -46% decline in its second weekend and very good weekday business, the domestic total for Despicable Me 2 has been upgraded to $353 million (from the initial $295 million estimate last week), now well above the $251.5 million domestic total for Despicable Me (released July 9, 2010).  Kevin Hart: Let Me Explain has been upgraded slightly to $41 million domestic total, while the other holdovers are tracking similarly to last week.

Weekend 28: July 12-14, 2013 ($ millions)
Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast Early Weekend Estimate Weekend Studio Estimate Actual Friday Gross Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj.
Despicable Me 2 Uni [46.5] 44.0 44.8 13.4–n/a 353
Grown Ups 2 Sony [45.5] 44.5 42.5 16.3–14.6 115
Pacific Rim WB [39.0] 36.5 38.3 14.6–12.8 109
The Heat Fox [15.5] 13.5 14.0 4.2–5.6 158
The Lone Ranger Dis [13.8] 11.1 11.1 3.3–4.6 95
Monsters University Dis [12.3] 11.2 10.6 3.3–4.2 283
World War Z Par [10.5] 9.3 9.4 2.7–3.8 206
White House Down Sony [7.4] 6.0 6.2 1.8–2.5 82
Kevin Hart: Let Me Explain Summit [5.2] 5.0 5.0 1.6–1.9 41
Man of Steel WB [6.2] 4.5 4.8 1.3–1.9 293

Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.


In case you missed them, click to see this week’s Weekend Predictions.


Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $191 million total Friday-Sunday, up 5% from the four-year average for the comparable weekend and up 24% from the same weekend last year.

WEEKEND #28 ($ millions)
Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only)
2013 $191 Grown Ups 2 $42.5, Pacific Rim $38.3
2012 $154 Ice Age: Continental Drift $46.6
2011 $252 Harry Potter Deathly Hallows Part 2 $169.2, Winnie the Pooh $7.9
2010 $171 Inception $62.8, Sorcerer’s Apprentice $17.6
2009 $152 Harry Potter Half Blood Prince $77.8
Avg 2009-12 $182

Check back later for the Studio Scorecard and the International Box Office report.

About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.