November 19, 2011

THE BIJOU: Early Friday Boxoffice – 11/18/11


Deadline has preliminary numbers for Friday, and they suggest BREAKING DAWN PART 1 will continue to narrowly edge out the opening weekend of New Moon in 2009, with a $73.5M Friday (compared to $72.7M for New Moon).  If the number holds, and if Breaking Dawn 1 doesn’t turn out to be more front-loaded than New Moon, that movie’s pattern would lead to a $144M weekend, which would be the biggest 3-day opening of the franchise (Eclipse opened over the 5-day 4th of July weekend last year) and the 4th biggest opening weekend ever, behind only the final Harry Potter, The Dark Knight, and Spider-Man 3.  

The news was far less good for HAPPY FEET 2, which is looking at a very blah $6M Friday, half what the original Happy Feet did in 2006.  If Feet 2 follows the same trajectory as the original, that could mean a bleak $20-22M weekend–with giant competition from no less than 3 new family films arriving in the market on Wednesday.  
THE DESCENDANTS seems to be off to a strong start with $300K in only 29 theatres, heading for a $1M+ weekend.  That would be a very good $35K per-theatre average, although it pales next to the $80K per-theatre number Fox Searchlight pulled last year in 18 theatres with its Black Swan opening.
Holdovers are looking overwhelmed by the Twilight franchise juggernaut.  IMMORTALS, not surprisingly, is facing a 60% plunge to a $12M second weekend, and JACK AND JILL isn’t much better, falling at least 50% to $11-12M, which guarantees it will be Adam Sandler’s biggest franchise flop in a decade.  A little more surprisingly, J. EDGAR, despite its older audience, is heading for a $6M 2d weekend, down a heavy 45% that’s worse than Hereafter‘s second weekend drop.  Boxoffice like that won’t help it stay alive in the Oscar race.
Stay with SHOWBUZZDAILY all weekend for updated boxoffice numbers and analysis…


About the Author

Mitch Salem
MITCH SALEM has worked on the business side of the entertainment industry for 20 years, as a senior business affairs executive and attorney for such companies as NBC, ABC, USA, Syfy, Bravo, and BermanBraun Productions, and before that, at the NY law firm of Weil, Gotshal & Manges. During all that, he has more or less constantly been going to the movies and watching TV, and writing about both since the 1980s. His film reviews also currently appear on and In addition, he is co-writer of an episode of the television series "Felicity."