Weekend #4 of 2015 is looking like $134 million for the top 12 films this weekend, way up from both the norm for this weekend and the same weekend last year. After missing the American Sniper opening weekend number by a mile in last week’s forecast, forgive us if we are a little gun shy. But this weekend’s trio of underperfomers look as moribund as they come — virtually no chance of a breakout from this pack.
Opening at around 2,500 theaters Friday (just below the 2,886 average theater count for opening weekends the last two years), The Boy Next Door from Universal should average $5,900 per theater for the three-day weekend (for a $14.5 million opening three-day weekend). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had a three-day opening weekend of $5,300 per theater for a $14.5 million weekend.] In early reviews at RottenTomatoes, the film is averaging a soft 29% positive. The Boy Next Door is on track for around $38 million domestic. Overseas the film could bring in around $25 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $63 million.
Opening at around 2,600 theaters Friday, Mortdecai from Lionsgate/Summit should average a weak $3,600 per theater Friday-Sunday (for a $9.5 million opening weekend). No reviews yet at RottenTomatoes. Mortdecai is on track for around $23 million domestic. Overseas the film could bring in around $12 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $35 million.
Opening at about 2,700 theaters Friday, Strange Magic from Disney should average a wobbly $3,400 per theater Friday-Sunday (for a $9.0 million opening weekend). In early reviews at RottenTomatoes, the film is averaging a weak 13% positive. Strange Magic is on track for around $21 million domestic. Overseas the film could bring in another $25 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $46 million.
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NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND Jan 23-25, 2015 |
Critics Positive | ($ millions) | ||||
| Opening Weekend Forecast | Domestic Total Projection | |||||
| Boy Next Door | Uni | R | 29% | 14.5 | 38 | |
| Mortdecai | LG/Sum | R | n/a | 9.5 | 23 | |
| Strange Magic | Dis | PG | 13% | 9.0 | 21 | |
American Sniper remains the biggest force in theaters by far.
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RETURNING FILMS Jan 23-25, 2015 |
Change vs Last Weekend | ($ millions) | |||
| Weekend Forecast | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | ||||
| American Sniper | WB | -46% | 48.5 | 275 | |
| Paddington | Weins | -35% | 12.3 | 89 | |
| Wedding Ringer | Sony | -45% | 11.3 | 68 | |
| Taken 3 | Fox | -50% | 7.4 | 95 | |
| Selma | Par | -36% | 5.6 | 55 | |
| The Imitation Game | Weins | -24% | 5.2 | 65 | |
| Into the Woods | Dis | -39% | 4.2 | 135 | |
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films this weekend have averaged $94 million total (Friday-Sunday), ranking 44th of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $98 million (while 2013 was $88 million, 2012 was $98 million and 2011 was $92 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like a very good $134 million, up +42% from the multi-year average for the comparable weekend and up +36% from the same weekend last year.
This Weekend Last Two Years ($ millions)
1.24.2014
I, Frankenstein LG/Sum PG13 Aaron Eckhart Yvonne Strahovski
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $16 Actual: $9
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $18 Actual: $19
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $52
1.25.2013
Hansel and Gretel: Witch Hunters Par R Jeremy Renner Gemma Arterton
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $14 Actual: $20
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $52 Actual: $56
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $170
Movie 43 Rel R Elizabeth Banks Steven Brill
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $9 Actual: $5
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $5 Actual: $9
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $21
Parker FilmDis R Jason Statham Jennifer Lopez
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $7 Actual: $7
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $19 Actual: $18
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $0
Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.
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