Articles

October 14, 2015
 

Weekend Box Office Predictions 10.16-18.2015

Weekend #42 of 2015 is looking like $125 million for the top 12 films this weekend, somewhat above the norm for this weekend (see comparisons below).

Goosebumps from Sony should open with a $27.5 million weekend. The film is on track for around $95 million domestic. Overseas the film could bring in $185 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $280 million.

Bridge of Spies from Disney should open with a $17.0 million weekend. The film is on track for around $65 million domestic. Overseas the film could bring in $115 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $180 million.

Crimson Peak from Universal should open with a $15.5 million weekend. The film is on track for around $39 million domestic. Overseas the film could bring in $51 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $90 million.

Woodlawn from PureFlix should open with a $3.5 million weekend. The film is on track for around $7 million domestic. Overseas the film could bring in $1 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $8 million.

NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND

October 16-18, 2015

Critics Positive ($ millions)
Opening Weekend Forecast Domestic Total Projection
Goosebumps Sony PG 77% 27.5 95
Bridge of Spies Dis PG13 91% 17.0 65
Crimson Peak Uni R 71% 15.5 39
Woodlawn Pure PG n/a 3.5 7
Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie. The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.


Returning film chart:

RETURNING FILMS

October 16-18, 2015

Change vs Last Weekend ($ millions)
Weekend Forecast Fri-Sun Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj.
The Martian Fox -33% 24.9 211
Hotel Transylvania 2 Sony -44% 11.4 170
Pan WB -51% 7.5 57
The Intern WB -26% 6.5 71
Sicario LG -42% 4.4 50
Maze Runner: Scorch Trials Fox -44% 3.0 81

 

Box Office Volume

For the past four years, the top 12 films this weekend have averaged $111 million total (Friday-Sunday), ranking 37th of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $121 million (while 2013 was $93 million, 2012 was $121 million and 2011 was $109 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like a decent $125 million, up +13% from the multi-year average for the comparable weekend and up a smaller +3% from the same weekend last year.

This Weekend Last Two Years ($ millions)

10.17.2014

Fury Sony R Brad Pitt Logan Lerman
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $32 Actual: $24
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $84 Actual: $86
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $126

The Book of Life Fox PG
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $17 Actual: $17
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $57 Actual: $50
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $47

The Best of Me Rel PG13 James Marsden Michelle Monaghan
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $16 Actual: $10
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $23 Actual: $27
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $9

Men, Women & Children Par R Adam Sandler Judy Greer
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $1 Actual: $0.3
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $n/a Actual: $1
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $2

10.18.2013

Escape Plan LG/Sum R Sylvester Stallone Arnold Schwarzenegger
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $9 Actual: $10
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $28 Actual: $25
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $112

Carrie Sony R Chloe Moretz Judy Greer
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $25 Actual: $16
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $39 Actual: $35
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $50

The Fifth Estate Dis R Benedict Cumberbatch Daniel Bruhl
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $4 Actual: $2
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $3 Actual: $3
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $5

Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.

 



About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.