Articles

December 17, 2014
 

Weekend Box Office Predictions 12.19-21.2014

Weekend #51 of 2014 is looking like $147 million for the top 12 films this weekend, up 22% from the norm for this weekend and up 8% from the same weekend last year.  

Opening at over 3,875 theaters Wednesday (well above the 2,886 average theater count for opening weekends the last two years), The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies from Warner Brothers should average $16,600 per theater for the three-day weekend (for a $64.5 million opening three-day weekend). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had a three-day opening weekend of $5,300 per theater for a $14.5 million weekend.] Including Wednesday and Thursday, the film should total about $110 million through Sunday for the first five days. In early reviews at RottenTomatoes, Battle of the Five Armies is averaging a barely above average 60% positive reviews. Battle of the Five Armies is on track for around $259 million domestic. Overseas the film could bring in around $705 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $964 million. This would be slightly below the $1.017 billion worldwide for The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (released 12.14.2012 with a $303.0 million domestic total and $714 million overseas total) but near the $958.4 million worldwide for The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug (released 12.13.2013 with $258.4 million domestic total and $700.0 million overseas total).

Opening at over 2,700 theaters Friday, Night at the Museum: Secret of the Tomb from 20th Century Fox should average $7,300 per theater for the weekend (for a $27.0 million opening three-day weekend). In early reviews, Night at the Museum is averaging a perfectly mediocre 50% positive reviews. Secret of the Tomb is on track for around $138 million domestic. Overseas the film could bring in around $250 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $388 million. This would be well below the $574.5 million worldwide for Night at the Museum (released 12.22.2006 with a $250.9 million domestic total and $323.6 million overseas total) and slightly below the $413.1 million worldwide for Night at the Museum: Battle of the Smithsonian (released 5.22.2009 with $177.2 million domestic total and $235.9 million overseas total).

Opening at around 3,000 theaters Friday, Annie from Sony should average $5,800 per theater for the weekend (for a $17.5 million opening three-day weekend). In early reviews, Annie is averaging a very weak 18% positive reviews. Annie is on track for around $79 million domestic. Overseas the film could bring in around $9 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $88 million.

NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND

Dec 19-21, 2014

Critics Positive ($ millions)
Opening Weekend Forecast Domestic Total Projection
The Hobbit: Battle of the Five Armies WB PG13 60% 64.5 259
Night at the Museum: Secret of the Tomb Fox PG 50% 27.0 138
Annie Sony PG 18% 17.5 79
Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie. The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.

Exodus: Gods and Kings is now the top holdover, the only one headed for over $10 million this weekend (and just barely so).  Not a lot of support on the bench.

RETURNING FILMS

Dec 19-21, 2014

Change vs Last Weekend ($ millions)
Weekend Forecast Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj.
Exodus: Gods and Kings Fox -56% 10.5 102
Hunger Games Mockingjay Part 1 LG/Sum -46% 6.9 320
Top Five Par -38% 4.3 65
Penguins of Madagascar Fox -48% 3.8 75
Wild Fox S +135% 3.6 55
Big Hero 6 Dis -43% 3.5 205
Interstellar Par -50% 2.8 189

 

Box Office Volume

For the past four years, the top 12 films this weekend have averaged $121 million total, ranking 30th of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $137 million (while 2012 was $100 million, 2011 was $114 million and 2010 was $132 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like $147 million, up 22% from the multi-year average for the comparable weekend and up 8% from the same weekend last year.

 

This Weekend Last Two Years ($ millions)

12.20.2013

American Hustle Sony R Christian Bale Bradley Cooper
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $18 Actual: $19
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $124 Actual: $150
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $101

Anchorman 2: The Legend Continues Par PG13 Will Ferrell Paul Rudd
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $42 Actual: $26
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $148 Actual: $125
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $46

Walking with Dinosaurs Fox PG
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $10 Actual: $7
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $40 Actual: $36
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $90

Saving Mr Banks Dis PG13 Emma Thompson Tom Hanks
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $12 Actual: $9
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $85 Actual: $83
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $29

12.21.2012

Jack Reacher Par PG13 Tom Cruise Rosamund Pike
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $16 Actual: $16
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $89 Actual: $80
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $136

This Is 40 Uni R Paul Rudd Leslie Mann
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $14 Actual: $12
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $76 Actual: $67
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $21

The Guilt Trip Par R Seth Rogen Barbra Streisand
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $7 Actual: $5
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $41 Actual: $37
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $4

Monsters, Inc. 3D Dis G
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $10 Actual: $5
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $44 Actual: $34
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $3

Cirque Du Soleil: Worlds Away 3D Par PG
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $2 Actual: $2
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $16 Actual: $12
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $20

Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.



About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.