December 3, 2015

Weekend Box Office Predictions 12.4-6.2015

Weekend #49 of 2015 is looking like a decent $94 million for the top 12 films this weekend, actually better than what we usually see on one of the slowest weekends of the year (see comparisons below).

Krampus from Universal should open with $12.0 million Friday-Sunday. The film is on track for around $26 million domestic in its run. Overseas the film could bring in $16 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $42 million.



December 4-6, 2015

Critics Positive ($ millions)
Opening Weekend Forecast Domestic Total Projection
Krampus Uni PG13 n/a 12.0 26
Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie. The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.

Returning film chart:


December 4-6, 2015

Change vs Last Weekend ($ millions)
Weekend Forecast Fri-Sun Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj.
Hunger Games: Mockingjay – Part 2 LG -60% 20.9 331
Creed WB -41% 17.3 111
The Good Dinosaur Dis -58% 16.4 163
Spectre Sony -51% 6.3 211
The Night Before Sony -43% 4.8 48
Peanuts Movie Fox -59% 4.0 145
Brooklyn FoxS -24% 3.0 27
Spotlight ORF -35% 2.9 29
The Secret in Their Eyes STX -53% 2.1 24


Box Office Volume

For the past four years, the top 12 films this weekend have averaged $74 million total, ranking 51st of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $70 million (while 2013 was $86 million, 2012 was $72 million and 2011 was $68 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like a surprisingly good $94 million, up +26% from the multi-year average for the comparable weekend and up +33% from the same weekend last year.  

This Weekend Last Two Years ($ millions)


The Pyramid Fox R
Opening Weekend — Forecast: n/a Actual: $1
Domestic Gross — Estimate: n/a Actual: $3
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $13


Out of the Furnace Rel R Christian Bale Casey Affleck
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $6 Actual: $5
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $16 Actual: $11
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $3

Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.


About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.