Weekend #11 of 2015 is looking like $126 million for the top 12 films this weekend, up significantly from comparable weekends the past few years and putting 2015 back on track after two down weekends in a row.
Opening at around 3,600 theaters Friday (well above the 2,886 average theater count for opening weekends the last two years), Cinderella from Disney should average $19,300 per theater for the three-day weekend (for a $69.5 million opening three-day weekend). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had a three-day opening weekend of $5,300 per theater for a $14.5 million weekend.] Early reviews at RottenTomatoes are strong: 87% positive overall. Cinderella is on track for around $205 million domestic. Overseas the film could bring in around $320 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $525 million.
Opening at around 3,150 theaters Friday, Run All Night from Warner Brothers should average $4,700 per theater Friday-Sunday (for a $14.5 million opening weekend). Early reviews are positive: 64% positive so far. Run All Night is on track for around $45 million domestic. Overseas the film could bring in about $50 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $95 million.
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NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND March 13-15, 2015 |
Critics Positive | ($ millions) | ||||
| Opening Weekend Forecast | Domestic Total Projection | |||||
| Cinderella | Dis | PG | 87% | 69.5 | 205 | |
| Run All Night | WB | R | 64% | 14.5 | 45 | |
A pretty slim bench, with Chappie leading the holdovers with a modest $6.8 million this weekend.
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RETURNING FILMS March 13-15, 2015 |
Change vs Last Weekend | ($ millions) | |||
| Weekend Forecast | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | ||||
| Chappie | Sony | -49% | 6.8 | 30 | |
| Second Best Exotic Marigold Hotel | FoxS | -29% | 6.1 | 29 | |
| Focus | WB | -40% | 6.0 | 59 | |
| Kingsman: The Secret Service | Fox | -34% | 5.5 | 118 | |
| SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water | Par | -44% | 3.8 | 166 | |
| McFarland, USA | Dis | -33% | 3.5 | 43 | |
| The DUFF | LG/CBS | -38% | 3.0 | 37 | |
| American Sniper | WB | -36% | 2.8 | 365 | |
| Lazarus Effect | Rel | -56% | 2.7 | 23 | |
| Fifty Shades of Grey | Uni | -51% | 2.7 | 159 | |
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films this weekend have averaged $100 million total (Friday-Sunday), ranking 41st of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $102 million (while 2013 was $96 million, 2012 was $98 million and 2011 was $103 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like a very solid $126 million, up +26% from the multi-year average for the comparable weekend and up +23% from the same weekend last year.
This Weekend Last Two Years ($ millions)
3.14.2014
Need for Speed Dis PG13 Aaron Paul Imogen Poots
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $27 Actual: $18
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $45 Actual: $43
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $160
Tyler Perry’s Single Moms Club LG/Sum PG13 Tyler Perry Nia Long
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $17 Actual: $8
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $16 Actual: $16
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $0
3.15.2013
The Call Sony R Halle Berry Abigail Breslin
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $11 Actual: $17
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $51 Actual: $52
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $0
Incredible Burt Wonderstone WB PG13 Steve Carell Jim Carrey
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $15 Actual: $10
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $26 Actual: $22
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $0
Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.
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