Articles

March 2, 2016
 

Weekend Box Office Predictions 3.4-6.2016

Weekend #10 of 2016 is looking like $146 million for the top 12 films this weekend, above the norm for this weekend (see comparisons below).

NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND

March 4-6, 2016

Critics Positive ($ millions)
Opening Weekend Forecast Domestic Total Projection Overseas Total Projection Worldwide Total Projection
Zootopia Dis PG 100% 67.0 225 375 600
London Has Fallen Foc R n/a 22.5 60 90 150
Whiskey Tango Foxtrot Par R 60% 8.5 22 13 35
Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie. The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.


Returning film chart:

RETURNING FILMS

March 4-6, 2016

Change vs Last Weekend ($ millions)
Weekend Forecast Fri-Sun Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj.
Deadpool Fox -42% 18.0 360
Gods of Egypt LG -58% 5.9 33
Kung Fu Panda 3 Fox -52% 4.3 147
Risen Sony -40% 4.1 40
The Revenant Fox -6% 3.7 185
Eddie the Eagle Fox -45% 3.4 24
Triple 9 ORF -53% 2.9 20
How to Be Single WB -44% 2.8 49
The Witch A24 -46% 2.8 29

 

Box Office Volume

For the past four years, the top 12 films this weekend have averaged $115 million total, ranking 35th of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $78 million (while 2014 was $131 million, 2013 was $128 million and 2012 was $121 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like $146 million, up +27% from the multi-year average for the comparable weekend and up +86% from the same weekend last year.

This Weekend Last Two Years ($ millions)

3.6.2015

Chappie Sony R Hugh Jackman Sharlto Copley
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $22 Actual: $13
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $34 Actual: $32
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $71

Second Best Exotic Marigold Hotel Fox PG Judi Dench Maggie Smith
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $8 Actual: $9
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $35 Actual: $33
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $53

Unfinished Business Fox R Dave Franco Sienna Miller
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $11 Actual: $5
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $10 Actual: $10
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $4

3.7.2014

300: Rise of An Empire WB R Sullivan Stapleton Eva Green
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $37 Actual: $45
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $122 Actual: $106
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $225

Mr Peabody & Sherman Fox PG
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $30 Actual: $32
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $122 Actual: $111
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $161

Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.

 



About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.