Weekend #27 of 2016 forecasts for films opening wide and major returning films:
|
NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND July 1-3, 2016 |
Critics Positive | ($ millions) | |||||||
| Opening Weekend Forecast | Four Day Fri-Sun | Domestic Total Projection | Overseas Total Projection | Worldwide Total Projection | |||||
| Purge: Election Year | Uni | R | 67% | 23.0 | 28.5 | 65 | 45 | 110 | |
| The BFG | Dis | PG | 71% | 20.5 | 26.0 | 70 | 255 | 325 | |
| Legend of Tarzan | WB | PG13 | 27% | 18.5 | 22.5 | 50 | 180 | 230 | |
Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie. The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts. The Overseas Total is also a ShowBuzzDaily projection based on similar movies and their performance outside North America.
THE PURGE TRACK
- The Purge: Anarchy opened 7.18-20.2014 with $29.8 million. Totals: $71.9 million domestic, $39.9 million overseas, $111.9 million worldwide
- The Purge opened 6.7-9.2013 with $34.1 million. Totals: $64.5 million domestic, $24.9 million overseas, $89.3 million worldwide
|
TOP RETURNING FILMS July 1-3, 2016 |
Change vs Last Weekend | ($ millions) | ||||
| Weekend Forecast | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | |||||
| Finding Dory | Dis | -41% | 43.3 | 445 | ||
| Independence Day: Resurgence | Fox | -60% | 16.3 | 101 | ||
| Central Intelligence | WB | -43% | 10.4 | 116 | ||
| The Shallows | Sony | -51% | 8.2 | 49 | ||
| The Conjuring 2 | WB | -53% | 3.6 | 107 | ||
| Free State of Jones* | STX | -55% | 3.4 | 22 | ||
*-an earlier version incorrectly listed Now You See Me 2 instead of Free State of Jones above
A look at last week’s opening weekend forecast accuracy:
- Independence Day: Resurgence: $56.5 million predicted and $41.0 million actual
- The Shallows: $12.0 million predicted and $16.8 million actual
- Free State of Jones: $9.5 million and $7.6 million actual
- Neon Demon: $2.5 million and $0.6 million actual
Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.
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