June 29, 2016

Weekend Box Office Predictions 7.1-3.2016

Weekend #27 of 2016 forecasts for films opening wide and major returning films:


July 1-3, 2016

Critics Positive ($ millions)
Opening Weekend Forecast Four Day Fri-Sun Domestic Total Projection Overseas Total Projection Worldwide Total Projection
Purge: Election Year Uni R 67% 23.0 28.5 65 45 110
The BFG Dis PG 71% 20.5 26.0 70 255 325
Legend of Tarzan WB PG13 27% 18.5 22.5 50 180 230
Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie. The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.  The Overseas Total is also a ShowBuzzDaily projection based on similar movies and their performance outside North America.


  • The Purge: Anarchy opened 7.18-20.2014 with $29.8 million. Totals: $71.9 million domestic, $39.9 million overseas, $111.9 million worldwide
  • The Purge opened 6.7-9.2013 with $34.1 million. Totals: $64.5 million domestic, $24.9 million overseas, $89.3 million worldwide


July 1-3, 2016

Change vs Last Weekend ($ millions)
Weekend Forecast  Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj.
Finding Dory Dis -41% 43.3 445
Independence Day: Resurgence Fox -60% 16.3 101
Central Intelligence WB -43% 10.4 116
The Shallows Sony -51% 8.2 49
The Conjuring 2 WB -53% 3.6 107
Free State of Jones* STX -55% 3.4 22

*-an earlier version incorrectly listed Now You See Me 2 instead of Free State of Jones above

A look at last week’s opening weekend forecast accuracy:

    • Independence Day: Resurgence: $56.5 million predicted and $41.0 million actual
    • The Shallows: $12.0 million predicted and $16.8 million actual
    • Free State of Jones: $9.5 million and $7.6 million actual
    • Neon Demon: $2.5 million and $0.6 million actual

Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.


About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.