July 27, 2016

Weekend Box Office Predictions 7.29-31.2016

Weekend #31 of 2016 forecasts for films opening wide and major returning films:


July 29-31, 2016

Critics Positive ($ millions)
Opening Weekend Forecast Domestic Total Projection Overseas Total Projection Worldwide Total Projection
Jason Bourne Uni PG13 59% 53.5 155 245 400
Bad Moms STX R n/a 26.5 85 35 120
Nerve LG PG13 63% 8.0 28 25 53
Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie. The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.  The Overseas Total is also a ShowBuzzDaily projection based on similar movies and their performance outside North America.


BOURNE Track (millions)

The Bourne Identity (6.14-16.2002) $27.1 opening weekend, $121.6 domestic, $92.4 overseas, $214.0 worldwide

The Bourne Supremacy (7.23-25.2004) $52.5 opening weekend, $176.2 domestic, $112.3 overseas, $288.5 worldwide

The Bourne Ultimatum (8.3-5.2007) $69.3 opening weekend, $227.5 domestic, $215.3 overseas, $442.8 worldwide

The Bourne Legacy (8.10-13.2012) $38.1 opening weekend, $113.2 domestic, $162.9 overseas, $276.1 worldwide



July 29-31, 2016

Change vs Last Weekend ($ millions)
Weekend Forecast  Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj.
Star Trek Beyond Par -48% 31.1 170
Secret Life of Pets Uni -43% 16.8 350
Ice Age: Collision Course Fox -48% 11.2 75
Lights Out WB -49% 11.1 65
Ghostbusters Sony -58% 8.8 135
Finding Dory Dis -35% 4.7 485
Legend of Tarzan WB -41% 3.9 137


A look at last week’s opening weekend forecast accuracy:

    • Star Trek Beyond: $66.5 million predicted and $59.3 million actual
    • Lights Out: $16.5 million predicted and $21.7 million actual
    • Ice Age: Collision Course$35.5 million predicted and $21.4 million actual

Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.


About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.