Articles

July 1, 2015
 

Weekend Box Office Predictions 7.3-5.2015

Weekend #27 of 2015 is looking like $161 million for the top 12 films this weekend, a touch below the norm for the same weekend the past few years but well above last year’s Independence Day Weekend dud (see comparisons below).

Terminator: Genisys from Paramount should open with a $34.0 million traditional three-day weekend and about $51 million through Sunday. Early reviews at RottenTomatoes are not great: 26% positive overall so far. Terminator: Genisys is on track for around $115 million domestic. Overseas the film could bring in $240 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $355 million.

This would be slightly below the $371 million worldwide total for Terminator: Salvation (released on 5.21.2009 with $125 million domestic total and $246 million overseas total).

Magic Mike 2 from Warner Brothers should open with a $30.5 million three-day weekend and about $45 million through Sunday. Slightly above average critical reception: 57% positive reviews so far. Magic Mike 2 is on track for around $120 million domestic. Overseas the film could bring in $90 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $210 million.

This would be somewhat above the $167 million worldwide total for Magic Mike (released on 6.29.2012 with $114 million domestic total and $53 million overseas total).

NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND

July 3-5, 2015

Critics Positive ($ millions)
Opening Weekend Forecast Total through Sunday Domestic Total Projection
Terminator: Genisys Par PG13 26% 34.0 51.0 115
Magic Mike 2 WB R 58% 30.5 45.0 120
Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie. The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.


Inside Out
and Jurassic World remain the top holdovers this weekend.

RETURNING FILMS

July 3-5, 2015

Change vs Last Weekend ($ millions)
Weekend Forecast Fri-Sun Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj.
Jurassic World Uni -43% 30.9 665
Inside Out Dis -41% 30.8 325
Ted 2 Uni -57% 14.3 107
Max WB -43% 6.9 32
Spy Fox -32% 5.4 110
San Andreas WB -37% 3.4 158
Dope ORP -54% 1.3 21

 

Box Office Volume

For the past four years, the top 12 films this weekend have averaged $168 million total (Friday-Sunday), ranking 10th of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $121 million (while 2013 was $222 million, 2012 was $182 million and 2011 was $146 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like a very typical $161 million, down -4% from the multi-year average for the comparable weekend but up +33% from the same weekend last year, which was quite low. 

This Weekend Last Two Years ($ millions)

7.4.2014

Tammy WB R Melissa McCarthy
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $24 Actual: $22
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $88 Actual: $84
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $16

Deliver Us from Evil Sony R Eric Bana Olivia Munn
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $17 Actual: $10
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $36 Actual: $30
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $57

Earth to Echo Rel PG
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $12 Actual: $8
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $40 Actual: $39
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $6

America: Imagine a World Without Her LG/Sum PG13
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $3 Actual: $3
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $10 Actual: $14
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $0

7.5.2013

Despicable Me 2 Uni PG
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $77 Actual: $84
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $352 Actual: $368
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $603

The Lone Ranger Dis PG13 Johnny Depp Armie Hammer
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $33 Actual: $29
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $97 Actual: $89
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $171

Kevin Hart: Let Me Explain LG/Sum R Kevin Hart
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $7 Actual: $10
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $41 Actual: $32
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $0

Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.



About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.