Weekend #27 of 2015 is looking like $161 million for the top 12 films this weekend, a touch below the norm for the same weekend the past few years but well above last year’s Independence Day Weekend dud (see comparisons below).
Terminator: Genisys from Paramount should open with a $34.0 million traditional three-day weekend and about $51 million through Sunday. Early reviews at RottenTomatoes are not great: 26% positive overall so far. Terminator: Genisys is on track for around $115 million domestic. Overseas the film could bring in $240 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $355 million.
This would be slightly below the $371 million worldwide total for Terminator: Salvation (released on 5.21.2009 with $125 million domestic total and $246 million overseas total).
Magic Mike 2 from Warner Brothers should open with a $30.5 million three-day weekend and about $45 million through Sunday. Slightly above average critical reception: 57% positive reviews so far. Magic Mike 2 is on track for around $120 million domestic. Overseas the film could bring in $90 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $210 million.
This would be somewhat above the $167 million worldwide total for Magic Mike (released on 6.29.2012 with $114 million domestic total and $53 million overseas total).
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NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND July 3-5, 2015 |
Critics Positive | ($ millions) | |||||
| Opening Weekend Forecast | Total through Sunday | Domestic Total Projection | |||||
| Terminator: Genisys | Par | PG13 | 26% | 34.0 | 51.0 | 115 | |
| Magic Mike 2 | WB | R | 58% | 30.5 | 45.0 | 120 | |
Inside Out and Jurassic World remain the top holdovers this weekend.
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RETURNING FILMS July 3-5, 2015 |
Change vs Last Weekend | ($ millions) | |||
| Weekend Forecast Fri-Sun | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | ||||
| Jurassic World | Uni | -43% | 30.9 | 665 | |
| Inside Out | Dis | -41% | 30.8 | 325 | |
| Ted 2 | Uni | -57% | 14.3 | 107 | |
| Max | WB | -43% | 6.9 | 32 | |
| Spy | Fox | -32% | 5.4 | 110 | |
| San Andreas | WB | -37% | 3.4 | 158 | |
| Dope | ORP | -54% | 1.3 | 21 | |
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films this weekend have averaged $168 million total (Friday-Sunday), ranking 10th of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $121 million (while 2013 was $222 million, 2012 was $182 million and 2011 was $146 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like a very typical $161 million, down -4% from the multi-year average for the comparable weekend but up +33% from the same weekend last year, which was quite low.
This Weekend Last Two Years ($ millions)
7.4.2014
Tammy WB R Melissa McCarthy
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $24 Actual: $22
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $88 Actual: $84
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $16
Deliver Us from Evil Sony R Eric Bana Olivia Munn
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $17 Actual: $10
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $36 Actual: $30
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $57
Earth to Echo Rel PG
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $12 Actual: $8
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $40 Actual: $39
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $6
America: Imagine a World Without Her LG/Sum PG13
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $3 Actual: $3
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $10 Actual: $14
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $0
7.5.2013
Despicable Me 2 Uni PG
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $77 Actual: $84
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $352 Actual: $368
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $603
The Lone Ranger Dis PG13 Johnny Depp Armie Hammer
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $33 Actual: $29
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $97 Actual: $89
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $171
Kevin Hart: Let Me Explain LG/Sum R Kevin Hart
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $7 Actual: $10
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $41 Actual: $32
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $0
Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.
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