Weekend #31 of 2015 is looking like $150 million for the top 12 films this weekend, fairly close to the norm for this weekend (see comparisons below).
Mission:Impossible – Rogue Nation from Paramount should open with a $55.0 million three-day weekend. Early reviews at RottenTomatoes are quite positive: 90% positive overall so far. Despite the strong reviews, the franchise, which dates back to Bill Clinton’s first term, should regress a bit. M:I Rogue Nation is on track for around $165 million domestic. Overseas the film could bring in $400 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $565 million.
This would be below the $692 million worldwide for Mission:Impossible – Ghost Protocol (released 12.16.2011), near the $546 million worldwide for Mission:Impossible II (released 5.24.2000), and above the $458 million worldwide for Mission:Impossible (released 5.22.1996) and the $398 million for Mission:Impossible III (released 5.5.2006).
Vacation from Warner Brothers should open with a $21.5 million traditional three-day weekend Friday-Sunday and $28 million Wednesday-Sunday. Critics are not laughing: 28% positive reviews so far. Vacation is on track for around $90 million domestic. Overseas the film could bring in $65 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $155 million.
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NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND July 31-Aug 2, 2015 |
Critics Positive | ($ millions) | ||||
| Opening Weekend Forecast | Domestic Total Projection | |||||
| Mission: Impossible — Rogue Nation | Par | PG13 | 90% | 55.0 | 165 | |
| Vacation | WB | PG13 | 28% | 21.5 | 90 | |
The strength of the holdovers is starting to wane, as the top returning film is just under $13 million this weekend.
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RETURNING FILMS July 31-Aug 2, 2015 |
Change vs Last Weekend | ($ millions) | |||
| Weekend Forecast Fri-Sun | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | ||||
| Ant-Man | Dis | -49% | 12.7 | 168 | |
| Minions | Uni | -48% | 11.8 | 330 | |
| Trainwreck | Uni | -34% | 11.3 | 109 | |
| Pixels | Sony | -55% | 10.8 | 60 | |
| Southpaw | Weins | -47% | 8.8 | 50 | |
| Paper Towns | Fox | -59% | 5.2 | 39 | |
| Inside Out | Dis | -35% | 4.8 | 349 | |
| Jurassic World | Uni | -35% | 4.6 | 655 | |
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films this weekend have averaged $142 million total (Friday-Sunday), ranking 20th of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $172 million (while 2013 was $123 million, 2012 was $114 million and 2011 was $158 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like a fairly normal $150 million, up +6% from the multi-year average for the comparable weekend but down -13% from the same weekend last year.
This Weekend Last Two Years ($ millions)
8.1.2014
Guardians of the Galaxy Dis PG13 Chris Pratt Zoe Zaldana
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $68 Actual: $94
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $287 Actual: $333
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $441
Get on Up Uni PG13 Chadwick Boseman Viola Davis
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $16 Actual: $14
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $38 Actual: $31
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $1
8.2.2013
The Smurfs 2 Sony PG
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $28 Actual: $18
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $63 Actual: $71
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $277
2 Guns Uni R Denzel Washington Mark Wahlberg
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $34 Actual: $27
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $77 Actual: $76
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $56
Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.
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