Articles

April 5, 2012
 

WEEKEND BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS April 6-8

>The calendar turns to the second quarter of the year, and the 14th weekend of the year should be another strong one: about $141 million for the top 12 films up 37% from last year’s comparable weekend and up 31% from the four-year average for this weekend.  Three films have a good shot at earning more than $30 million Friday-Sunday: the sequel American Reunion, the 3D re-release of Titanic (which opened today), and the third weekend of The Hunger Games.           

Opening at over 3,200 theaters on Friday, American Reunion from Universal should average a decent $10,300 per theater (for $33 million Friday-Sunday).  [The average wide-release film the past two years has had an opening three-day weekend of $5,525 per theater.]  Reviews at RottenTomatoes are currently running at a so-so 53% positive.  American Reunion is on track for a preliminary $106 million domestic, compared to $145.1 million for American Pie 2 back in August 2001 and $102.6 million for American Pie in July 1999.            


Opening at 2,674 theaters today, Titanic (3D) from Paramount should average a very good $11,900 per theater for the traditional three-day weekend (for $32 million Friday-Sunday and $45 million Wednesday-Sunday).  Reviews at RottenTomatoes are currently running at a very good 86% positive.  Titanic (3D) is on track for a preliminary $105 million domestic, a little extra contribution to the $1.843 billion worldwide gross from the film’s original run in quaint 2D.            

                                               (millions)
New Films                        Critics    Opening  Domestic
April 6-8                        Positive   Weekend   Total*

American Reunion        Uni  R      53%      $33.0    $106
Titanic (3D)            Par  PG13   86%      $32.0    $105

Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie.

* The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.


The Hunger Games should fight its way to over $30 million in its third weekend.  It had a rough second Monday (down 58% from the first Monday) but Tuesday was relatively stronger (down 48% from the first Tuesday).  We are forecasting the third weekend decline will be more in line with Tuesday’s fall-off, making for a fairly close three-way battle for first-place this weekend.

                                              (millions)
Major Returning Films            Change     This    Domestic
April 6-8                       vs wknd 1  Weekend   Total*
 
The Hunger Games         LG       -48%      $30.5     $375
Wrath of the Titans      WB       -54%      $15.5     $ 86
Mirror Mirror            Rel      -43%      $10.5     $ 43
21 Jump Street           Sony     -36%      $ 9.5     $132
The Lorax                Uni      -30%      $ 5.5     $213
John Carter              Dis      -43%      $ 1.2     $ 72
Act of Valor             Rel      -58%      $ 1.1     $ 71 

Salmon Fishing in Yemen  CBS      -25%      $ 1.0     $ —

Box Office Volume

For the past four years, the top 12 films in this comparable weekend have averaged $107 million total, ranking 34th of 52 weeks.  Last year this weekend’s total was $103 million, and the same weekend in 2010 was $119 million.  This Friday-Sunday is looking like a solid $141 million, up a 37% from this weekend last year and up 31% from an “average” comparable weekend over the past four years.             

This Weekend Last Two Years

4/8/11
 Arthur WB PG13 Russell Brand Helen Mirren 
 Opening Weekend — Forecast: $16  Actual: $12
 Domestic Gross — Estimate: $35  Actual: $33
 International — Estimate: n/a  Actual: $13
 Your Highness UNI R Danny McBride James Franco 
 Opening Weekend — Forecast: $13  Actual: $9
 Domestic Gross — Estimate: $22  Actual: $22
 International — Estimate: n/a  Actual: $3
 Hanna FOCPG13 Eric Bana Cate Blanchett 
 Opening Weekend — Forecast: $9  Actual: $12
 Domestic Gross — Estimate: $44  Actual: $40
 International — Estimate: n/a  Actual: $24
 Soul Surfer TRI PG Dennis Quaid AnnaSophia Robb 
 Opening Weekend — Forecast: $8  Actual: $11
 Domestic Gross — Estimate: $38  Actual: $44
 International — Estimate: n/a  Actual: $0
4/9/10
 Date Night FOX PG13 Steve Carell Tina Fey 
 Opening Weekend — Forecast: $27  Actual: $25
 Domestic Gross — Estimate: $92  Actual: $99
 International — Estimate: n/a  Actual: $54

Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.

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About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.