WEEKEND BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS August 24-26: Crappy Films Mark the Beginning of the 7-Week Box Office Drought

• Tweet
• Email

• Tweet
• Email

Weekend #34 of 2012 looks like a typically bad fourth weekend of August.  Three shitty new films open and a political documentary goes semi-wide, and each should be well under $10 million for the weekend.  The top 12 films this weekend should total $89 million, about the same pace for the comparable weekend the last few years.  This is the beginning of a seven-week stretch in which weekend box office remains under $92 million each week, until the box office starts to re-awaken in mid-October.

Opening at about 2,100 theaters Friday, Premium Rush from Sony should average $4,000 per theater (for an $8.5 million opening weekend).  [The average wide-release film the past two years has had an opening three-day weekend of $5,525 per theater.]  The audience is not begging for a Joseph Gordon-Levitt thriller about a bike messenger in jeopardy.   The film might gross $20 million domestic, less than Sony’s legal fees to defend against claims of intellectual property theft by a Bay Area writer.

Opening at 2,870 theaters, Hit and Run from Open Road Films should average a lame $2,400 per theater (for a $7.0 million opening three-day weekend and $10 million Wednesday-Sunday).  The film might get to $18 million domestic.  Written by, co-directed by and starring Dax Shepard, the film should be about as appealing and interesting as a typical Parenthood episode.  The only film this weekend released for critics, it is currently running at 46% positive on RottenTomatoes.

Expanding to over 1,000 theaters, 2016 Obama’s America from Rocky Mountain Films should average $5,500 per theater Friday-Sunday (for a $5.5 million weekend).  Conservative Dinesh D’Souza explores the President’s family tree in Kenya and discusses the ideological influences that shaped a Presidency.  The film might hit $18 million domestic.

Finally, opening Friday in around 800 theaters, The Apparition from Warner Brothers should average $3,300 per theater Friday-Sunday (for an opening weekend of under $3 million).  The Joel Silver-produced film should be turned away from theaters quickly and end with around $7 million domestic.

Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie.

* The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.

Expendables 2 should be the lone film to break $10 million this weekend.

Box Office Volume

For the past four years, the top 12 films in this comparable weekend have averaged a dreadful $88 million total, ranking 45th of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $75 million (while 2010’s comparable weekend was $95 million).  This Friday-Sunday is looking like a $89 million, up 19% from this weekend last year but even (+1%) versus an “average” comparable weekend over the past four years.  

This Weekend Last Two Years

8.26.2011

Don’t Be Afraid of the Dark FILMDISR Katie Holmes Guy Pearce
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $11 Actual: $9
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $31 Actual: $24
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $13

Colombiana SONY PG13 Zoe Saldana Michael Vartan
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $9 Actual: $10
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $40 Actual: $37
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $24

Our Idiot Brother WEINS R Paul Rudd Elizabeth Banks
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $9 Actual: $7
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $32 Actual: $25
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $0

8.27.2010

The Last Exorcism LG PG13
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $15 Actual: $20
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $49 Actual: $41
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $26

Takers SONY PG13 Chris Brown Hayden Christensen
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $11 Actual: $21
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $60 Actual: $58
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $11

Avatar: Special Edition FOX PG13 Sam Worthington Zoe Saldana
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $3 Actual: $4
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $17 Actual: $10
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $0

Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.

###