The busy Christmas film season gets going this weekend with the opening of The Hobbit. Not much else is happening at the box office as the movies from the last two weeks are pretty much dead and the Thanksgiving movies are getting a tad stale. But the prequel to the uber-nerd extravaganza that is J.R.R. Tolkein’s rune-filled Lord of the Rings world will prime the pump for the rest of the holiday season movies.
Opening at over 4,000 theaters Friday (late Thursday), The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey from director Peter Jackson and Warner Brothers should average $27,500 per theater (for a $110 million opening weekend). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had an opening three-day weekend of $5,300 per theater. The Hobbit‘s $27,500 per theater opening weekend average will fall somewhere between Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 2 ($34,660) and Skyfall ($25,211) in terms of recent hits.] Critics are only fairly positive (the film has a 74% positive rating at RottenTomatoes — significantly lower than the 92-96% rating each of the Lord of the Rings trilogy earned). We are projecting the prequel will gross $348 million domestic and play only moderately well.
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NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND December 14-16, 2012 |
Critics Positive | ($ millions) | ||||
| Opening Weekend Forecast | Domestic Total Projection | |||||
| The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey | WB | PG13 | 74% | 110 | 348 | |
Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie.
* The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.
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LORD OF THE RINGS Trilogy New Line |
Critics Positive | ($ millions) | ||||||
| Opening Weekend Domestic | Domestic Total | Overseas Total | Worldwide Total | |||||
| Fellowship of the Ring | 12.19.2001 | PG13 | 92% | 47.2 | 315.5 | 555.9 | 871.5 | |
| The Two Towers | 12.18.2002 | PG13 | 96% | 62.0 | 342.5 | 583.5 | 926.0 | |
| Return of the King | 12.17.2003 | PG13 | 94% | 72.6 | 377.8 | 742.1 | 1119.9 | |
Not much in terms of holdover business because there has not been a significant movie released in the last two weeks.
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RETURNING FILMS December 14-16, 2012 |
Change vs Last Weekend | ($ millions) | |||
| Weekend Forecast | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | ||||
| Rise of the Guardians | Par/DW | -40% | 6.3 | 85 | |
| Lincoln | Dis | -34% | 5.9 | 131 | |
| Skyfall | Sony | -45% | 5.9 | 289 | |
| Life of Pi | Fox | -44% | 4.7 | 83 | |
| Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 2 | Sum | -50% | 4.6 | 282 | |
| Playing for Keeps | FilmD | -49% | 3.0 | 10 | |
| Wreck-It Ralph | Dis | -45% | 2.7 | 180 | |
| Red Dawn | FilmD | -48% | 2.2 | 43 | |
| Flight | Par | -46% | 1.7 | 97 | |
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films in this comparable weekend have averaged $112 million total, ranking 32nd of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $110 million (while 2010’s comparable weekend was $128 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like $151 million, up 35% from the average comparable weekend over the past four years and up 37% from the same weekend last year. We have to go back to the same weekend in 2007 (December 14-16) for a better performance on the same weekend: $152 million for the top 12 films, paced by the openings of I Am Legend ($77.2 million) and Alvin and the Chipmunks ($44.3 million).
This Weekend Last Two Years
12.16.2011
Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows WB PG13 Robert Downey Jr Jude Law
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $57 Actual: $40
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $133 Actual: $187
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $357
Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked FOX G Jason Lee David Cross
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $34 Actual: $23
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $80 Actual: $133
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $210
Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol PAR PG13 Tom Cruise Jeremy Renner
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $10 Actual: $13
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $160 Actual: $209
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $484
Young Adult PAR R Charlize Theron Patton Oswalt
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $6 Actual: $3
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $15 Actual: $16
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $6
12.17.2010
TRON: Legacy DIS PG Jeff Bridges Garrett Hedlund
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $44 Actual: $44
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $139 Actual: $172
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $228
Yogi Bear WB PG
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $21 Actual: $16
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $54 Actual: $100
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $101
The Fighter PAR R Mark Wahlberg Christian Bale
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $13 Actual: $12
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $52 Actual: $94
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $36
How Do You Know SONY PG13 Paul Rudd Reese Witherspoon
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $12 Actual: $7
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $23 Actual: $30
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $18
Black Swan FOX R Natalie Portman Mila Kunis
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $7 Actual: $8
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $52 Actual: $107
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $209
Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.
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