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December 15, 2011
 

WEEKEND BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS December 16-18

>After three very rough weekends, this weekend should be very solid at the box office.  We expect the top 12 films to gross around $145 million, up sharply from the $128 million the same weekend last year.  The second Sherlock Holmes film should lead the way with over $60 million this weekend, followed by around $35 million for the third Alvin & the Chipmunks.        


Opening at over 3,600 theaters, Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows from Warner Brothers (the second film in the series) should average a very strong $17,000 per theater (for $61 million Friday-Sunday).  [The average wide-release film the past two years has had an opening weekend of $5,525 per theater.]  Critics have been very supportive, 72% positive reviews so far at RottenTomatoes.  Game of Shadows is on track for $215 million domestically.  For comparison, the first Sherlock Holmes opened 12.25.2009 with a $62.3 million opening weekend on its way to $209 million domestic and $315 million overseas.   

At around 3,300 theaters, Alvin & the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked from 20th Century Fox should average a solid $10,800 per theater ($35.5 million Friday-Sunday).  The third Alvin movie is looking like $180 million domestically.  Critics have been repulsed so far: 11% positive at RottenTomatoes compared to 26% positive for the first film and 21% for the Squeakquel.  For comparison, Alvin and the Chipmunks opened 12.14.2007 with a $44.3 million opening weekend on its way to $217 million domestic and $144 overseas.  Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel opened with $48.9 million on its way to $219 million and $224 million overseas.


Previewing at about 400 Imax theaters, Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol (the fourth M:I already) should average about $26,250 per theater (for a $10.5 million preview weekend).  The film expands wide the following weekend.  


Finally, Charlize Theron in Young Adult expands to around 1,000 theaters this weekend.  The comedy-drama should average a so-so $6,500 per theater for a $6.5 million weekend. 

                                               (millions)
New Films                        Critics    Opening  Domestic
December 16-18                   Positive   Weekend   Total*

Sherlock Holmes 2         WB  PG13  72%      $61.0     $215
Alvin & Chipmunks 3      Fox  G     11%      $35.5     $180
Mission: Impossible 4    Par  PG13  92%      $10.5*    $170
Young Adult              Par  R     79%      $ 6.5     $ 60

Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie.
* The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.

As for the returning films and their business this weekend, not much to see here.   

                                              (millions)
Major Returning Films            Change     This    Domestic
December 16-18                  vs wknd 1  Weekend   Total*

New Year’s Eve           WB       -47%      $ 7.0     $ 29
The Sitter              Fox       -54%      $ 4.5     $ 26

Arthur Christmas        Sony      -25%      $ 4.3     $ 49
Twilight Breaking Dawn 1Sum       -51%      $ 3.8     $269
Hugo                    Par       – 9%      $ 3.7     $ 50
The Muppets             Dis       -39%      $ 3.7     $ 81 
The Descendants         Fox       – 2%      $ 3.5     $ 35
 
Box Office Volume

For the past four years, the top 12 films in the comparable weekend have averaged $122 million total, ranking 24th of 52 weeks.  Last year this weekend’s total was $128 million, and the same weekend in 2009 was $130 million.  This Friday-Sunday is looking like $145 million, up 14% from this weekend last year and up 19% from the four-year average for this weekend.       

This Weekend Last Two Years

12/17/10
 TRON: Legacy DIS PG Jeff Bridges Garrett Hedlund 
 Opening Weekend — Forecast: $44  Actual: $44
 Domestic Gross — Estimate: $139  Actual: $172
 International — Estimate: n/a  Actual: $228
 Black Swan FOX R Natalie Portman Mila Kunis 
 Opening Weekend — Forecast: $7  Actual: $8
 Domestic Gross — Estimate: $52  Actual: $107
 International — Estimate: n/a  Actual: $209
 Yogi Bear WB PG   
 Opening Weekend — Forecast: $21  Actual: $16
 Domestic Gross — Estimate: $54  Actual: $100
 International — Estimate: n/a  Actual: $101
 The Fighter PAR R Mark Wahlberg Christian Bale 
 Opening Weekend — Forecast: $13  Actual: $12
 Domestic Gross — Estimate: $52  Actual: $94
 International — Estimate: n/a  Actual: $36
 How Do You Know SONY PG13 Paul Rudd Reese Witherspoon 
 Opening Weekend — Forecast: $12  Actual: $7
 Domestic Gross — Estimate: $23  Actual: $30
 International — Estimate: n/a  Actual: $18
12/18/09
 Avatar FOX PG13 Sam Worthington Zoe Saldana 
 Opening Weekend — Forecast: $76  Actual: $77
 Domestic Gross — Estimate: $441  Actual: $750
 International — Estimate: n/a  Actual: $1991
 Did You Hear About the Morgans? SONY PG13 Hugh Grant Sarah Jessica Parker 
 Opening Weekend — Forecast: $12  Actual: $7
 Domestic Gross — Estimate: $25  Actual: $30
 International — Estimate: n/a  Actual: $56

Come back throughout the weekend to see how the movies actually perform.  Saturday morning we will have an early look at how the weekend is shaping up, on Sunday we will have initial studio estimates (based on Friday and Saturday actuals), and Monday we will have the final weekend numbers.



About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.