>After three very rough weekends, this weekend should be very solid at the box office. We expect the top 12 films to gross around $145 million, up sharply from the $128 million the same weekend last year. The second Sherlock Holmes film should lead the way with over $60 million this weekend, followed by around $35 million for the third Alvin & the Chipmunks.
Opening at over 3,600 theaters, Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows from Warner Brothers (the second film in the series) should average a very strong $17,000 per theater (for $61 million Friday-Sunday). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had an opening weekend of $5,525 per theater.] Critics have been very supportive, 72% positive reviews so far at RottenTomatoes. Game of Shadows is on track for $215 million domestically. For comparison, the first Sherlock Holmes opened 12.25.2009 with a $62.3 million opening weekend on its way to $209 million domestic and $315 million overseas.
At around 3,300 theaters, Alvin & the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked from 20th Century Fox should average a solid $10,800 per theater ($35.5 million Friday-Sunday). The third Alvin movie is looking like $180 million domestically. Critics have been repulsed so far: 11% positive at RottenTomatoes compared to 26% positive for the first film and 21% for the Squeakquel. For comparison, Alvin and the Chipmunks opened 12.14.2007 with a $44.3 million opening weekend on its way to $217 million domestic and $144 overseas. Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel opened with $48.9 million on its way to $219 million and $224 million overseas.
Previewing at about 400 Imax theaters, Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol (the fourth M:I already) should average about $26,250 per theater (for a $10.5 million preview weekend). The film expands wide the following weekend.
Finally, Charlize Theron in Young Adult expands to around 1,000 theaters this weekend. The comedy-drama should average a so-so $6,500 per theater for a $6.5 million weekend.
(millions)
New Films Critics Opening Domestic
December 16-18 Positive Weekend Total*
Sherlock Holmes 2 WB PG13 72% $61.0 $215
Alvin & Chipmunks 3 Fox G 11% $35.5 $180
Mission: Impossible 4 Par PG13 92% $10.5* $170
Young Adult Par R 79% $ 6.5 $ 60
Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie.
* The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.
As for the returning films and their business this weekend, not much to see here.
(millions)
Major Returning Films Change This Domestic
December 16-18 vs wknd 1 Weekend Total*
New Year’s Eve WB -47% $ 7.0 $ 29
The Sitter Fox -54% $ 4.5 $ 26
Arthur Christmas Sony -25% $ 4.3 $ 49
Twilight Breaking Dawn 1Sum -51% $ 3.8 $269
Hugo Par – 9% $ 3.7 $ 50
The Muppets Dis -39% $ 3.7 $ 81
The Descendants Fox – 2% $ 3.5 $ 35
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films in the comparable weekend have averaged $122 million total, ranking 24th of 52 weeks. Last year this weekend’s total was $128 million, and the same weekend in 2009 was $130 million. This Friday-Sunday is looking like $145 million, up 14% from this weekend last year and up 19% from the four-year average for this weekend.
This Weekend Last Two Years
Come back throughout the weekend to see how the movies actually perform. Saturday morning we will have an early look at how the weekend is shaping up, on Sunday we will have initial studio estimates (based on Friday and Saturday actuals), and Monday we will have the final weekend numbers.
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