December 4, 2013

Weekend Box Office Predictions DECEMBER 6-8

The 49th weekend of the year is looking like $97 million for the top 12 films Friday-Sunday, down from last year but up from the usual performance for this weekend over the past several years.

Opening at around 2,000 theaters Friday (well below the 2,886 average theater count for opening weekends the last two years), Out of the Furnace from Relativity should average a very weak $3,300 per theater for the weekend (for a $6.5 million opening weekend). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had an opening weekend of $5,300 per theater.] Early reviews are fairly positive at RottenTomatoes: 64% positive so far. Out of the Furnace is on track for maybe $20 million domestic.



December 6-8, 2013

Critics Positive ($ millions)
Opening Weekend Forecast Domestic Total Projection
Out of the Furnace Rel R 64% 6.5 20
Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie. The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.


Hunger Games: Catching Fire.



December 6-8, 2013

Change vs Last Weekend ($ millions)
Weekend Forecast Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj.
Frozen 3D Dis -52% 32.6 260
The Hunger Games: Catching Fire LG/Sum -58% 31.6 475
Thor: The Dark World Dis -54% 5.2 215
Best Man Holiday Uni -47% 4.3 81
Delivery Man Dis  -50% 3.4 35
Homefront ORF -54% 3.2 22
The Book Thief Fox -43% 2.8 20
Philomena Weins -40% 2.2 22
Black Nativity Fox -48% 1.9 15


Box Office Volume

For the past four years, the top 12 films the weekend after Thanksgiving week have averaged $87 million total, ranking 47th of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $106 million (while 2011 was $74 million and 2010 was $78 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like $97 million, up 11% from the multi-year average for the comparable weekend but down 8% from the comparable weekend last year.


This Weekend Last Two Years


Killing Them Softly WEINS R Brad Pitt Ray Liotta
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $8 Actual: $7
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $21 Actual: $15
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $23

The Collection LD ENTR
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $3 Actual: $3
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $8 Actual: $7
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $0


No releases


Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.

About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.