WEEKEND BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS February 15-17

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The 7th weekend of 2013 looks like it will be down from prior years but not at the excessive rates we have seen the past few weekends.  We expect $121 million for the top 12 films Friday-Sunday, 6% to 15% below the normal pace for this weekend.  

Opening in 3,552 theaters Thursday, A Good Day to Die Hard from 20th Century Fox and starring Bruce Willis should average a sturdy $9,200 per theater for the weekend (for a $32.6 million traditional Friday-Sunday opening weekend).  [The average wide-release film the past two years has had an opening three-day weekend of $5,300 per theater.]  Over the four-day Thursday-Sunday period, the latest Die Hard installment should gross $41 million.  Early reviews at RottenTomatoes are hostile: only 6% positive currently.  A Good Day to Die Hard should be on course for $97 million domestic.

Opening in 3,223 theaters Thursday, Safe Haven from Relativity should average $6,100 per theater for the weekend (for a $19.6 million traditional Friday-Sunday opening weekend).  Over the four-day Thursday-Sunday period, Safe Haven should gross $27 million.  Early reviews at RottenTomatoes are weak: 13% positive currently.  Safe Haven should be on course for $60 million domestic.

Opening in over 3,000 theaters Friday, Escape from Planet Earth from Weinstein Company should average a soft $4,500 per theater for the weekend (for a $13.5 million traditional Friday-Sunday opening weekend).  No early reviews at RottenTomatoes: the animated film is being hidden.  Escape from Planet Earth should be on course for $35 million domestic.

Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie.

* The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.

Down a mediocre 49% in its second weekend, Identity Thief will probably fall to third place this weekend.  

Box Office Volume

For the past four years, the top 12 films in this comparable weekend have averaged $129 million total, ranking 26th of 52 weeks.  Last year, this weekend’s total was $143 million (while 2011 was $130 million and 2010 was $122 million).  This Friday-Sunday is looking like $121 million, down 6% from the average comparable weekend over the past four years and down 15% from the same weekend last year.   

This Weekend Last Two Years

2.17.2012

Ghost Rider Spirit of Vengeance SONY PG13 Nicolas Cage Idris Elba
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $26 Actual: $22
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $54 Actual: $52
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $81

This Means War FOX PG13 Chris Pine Reese Witherspoon
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $16 Actual: $17
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $51 Actual: $55
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $101

Secret World of Arrietty DIS G
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $5 Actual: $6
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $32 Actual: $19
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $126

2.18.2011

Unknown WB PG13 Liam Neeson Diane Kruger
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $25 Actual: $22
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $76 Actual: $64
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $67

I Am Number Four DIS PG13 Alex Pettyfer Timothy Olyphant
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $31 Actual: $19
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $63 Actual: $55
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $89

Big Mommas: Like Father, Like Son FOX PG13 Martin Lawrence Brandon T Jackson
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $19 Actual: $16
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $41 Actual: $38
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $45

Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.

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