The sixth weekend of 2013 looks like another very bad one. Only $78 million for the top 12 films, over 50% below the normal pace for this weekend. That’s three down weekends in a row, and the year-over-year declines are accelerating each week. Now before you think there is a “slump” caused by piracy, streaming, ticket prices, or some other macro explanation, remember the first cause of under-performance at the box office: awful movies.
Last year, two films opened this same weekend over $40 million and another opener hit $27 million. Certainly, The Vow, Safe House and Journey 2: The Mysterious Island might not be art, but they are undeniably commercial movies with clear concepts and solid target demo groups. In contrast, the last few weekends have been dominated by forgettable titles and tired ideas. This weekend, two new films step up to the plate. One should do reasonably well, while the other struggles. But there is nothing big to shake off the doldrums.
Opening in 3,141 theaters Friday, Identity Thief from Universal and starring Jason Bateman and Melissa McCarthy should average a solid $7,700 per theater for the weekend (for a $24.2 million opening weekend). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had an opening three-day weekend of $5,300 per theater.] Early reviews at RottenTomatoes are mediocre: 56% positive. The middling reviews should be mitigated by the comedy genre’s playability: Identity Thief should be on course for $85 million domestic.
Opening at about 2,605 theaters, Side Effects from Open Road Films should average a slightly below average $4,700 per theater (for a $12.2 million opening weekend). The Jude Law and Rooney Mara drama from director Steven Soderbergh is running at a strong 81% positive at RottenTomatoes. Side Effects should end up with about $45 million domestic.
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NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND February 8-10, 2013 |
Critics Positive | ($ millions) | ||||
| Opening Weekend Forecast | Domestic Total Projection | |||||
| Identity Thief | Uni | R | 56% | 24.2 | 85 | |
| Side Effects | ORF | R | 81% | 12.2 | 45 | |
Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie.
* The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.
Things are getting stale with the holdovers.
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RETURNING FILMS February 8-10, 2013 |
Change vs Last Weekend | ($ millions) | |||
| Weekend Forecast | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | ||||
| Warm Bodies | Summit | -42% | 11.6 | 65 | |
| Silver Linings Playbook | Weins | -14% | 6.7 | 105 | |
| Hansel and Gretel: Witch Hunters | Par | -44% | 5.3 | 55 | |
| Mama | Uni | -41% | 3.9 | 73 | |
| Zero Dark Thirty | Sony | -33% | 3.5 | 95 | |
| Bullet to the Head | WB | -49% | 2.3 | 12 | |
| Django Unchained | Weins | -30% | 2.1 | 165 | |
| Parker | FilmDis | -45% | 1.8 | 18 | |
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films in this comparable weekend have averaged $165 million total, ranking 10th of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $173 million (while 2011 was $135 million and 2010 was $189 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like an absolutely brutal $78 million, down 53% from the average comparable weekend over the past four years and down 55% from the same weekend last year.
This Weekend Last Two Years
2.10.2012
The Vow SONY PG13 Rachel McAdams Channing Tatum
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $31 Actual: $41
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $144 Actual: $125
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $69
Safe House UNI R Denzel Washington Ryan Reynolds
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $24 Actual: $40
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $138 Actual: $126
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $76
Journey 2: The Mysterious Island WB PG The Rock Michael Caine
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $18 Actual: $27
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $101 Actual: $104
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $222
Star Wars: Episode 1 The Phantom Menace (in 3D) FOX PG Liam Neeson Ewan McGregor
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $20 Actual: $22
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $50 Actual: $43
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $59
2.11.2011
Just Go With It SONY PG13 Adam Sandler Jennifer Aniston
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $35 Actual: $31
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $105 Actual: $103
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $112
Justin Bieber: Never Say Never PAR G Justin Bieber
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $24 Actual: $30
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $78 Actual: $73
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $25
Gnomeo and Juliet DIS G
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $15 Actual: $25
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $98 Actual: $100
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $90
The Eagle UNI PG13 Channing Tatum Jamie Bell
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $8 Actual: $9
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $22 Actual: $19
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $20
Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.
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