>The second weekend of 2012 looks to be fairly anemic: $103 million for the top 12 films for the traditional three-day Friday-Sunday period. This would be down 11% from the same weekend in 2011 and down 28% from the same weekend average for the past several years. Basically, there is just not enough heat or buzz for the crop of movies this weekend. Not that the movies look bad or bomb-like — just positively mediocre.
Opening at over 2,750 theaters, Contraband from Universal should average a so-so $5,900 per theater (for $16.5 million Friday-Sunday). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had an opening three-day weekend of $5,525 per theater.] Very few reviews are posted for this film on RottenTomatoes, not nearly enough to summarize critical sentiment. Contraband is on track for a preliminary $51 million domestically.
Re-released in about 2,500 theaters, Beauty and the Beast 3D from Disney should average around $5,600 per theater (for $14.0 million Friday-Sunday). The film should be on track for about $50 million domestic final for this re-issue, about half of what Lion King in 3D did. We might be low-balling this — but, hey, we will know soon enough late Friday night/ Saturday morning.
Joyful Noise from Warner Brothers should average a below par $4,500 per theater at around 2,700 theaters ($12.0 million from Friday-Sunday). This mashup of Queen Latifah and Dolly Parton should be on track for a final tally of $37 million domestic.
(millions)
New Films Critics Opening Domestic
January 13-15 Positive Weekend Total*
Contraband Uni R n/a $16.5 $ 51
Beauty & Beast 3D Dis G 91% $14.0 $ 50
Joyful Noise WB PG13 n/a $12.0 $ 37
Iron Lady Wein PG13 55% $ 3.5 $ 15
Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie.
* The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.
A horrific drop is in store for The Devil Inside in its second weekend, moving its weekend tally below that for Mission: Impossible — Ghost Protocol, which is still pretty impressive at almost $12 million in its fourth weekend.
(millions)
Major Returning Films Change This Domestic
January 13-15 vs wknd 1 Weekend Total*
Mission: Impossible 4 Par -41% $11.5 $234
The Devil Inside Par -73% $ 9.0 $ 63
Sherlock Holmes 2 WB -40% $ 8.0 $190
Girl Dragon Tattoo Sony -36% $ 7.5 $109
Alvin & Chipmunks 3 Fox -36% $ 6.0 $132
War Horse DW/Dis -40% $ 5.0 $ 84
We Bought a Zoo Fox -41% $ 5.0 $ 79
Adventures of Tintin Par -34% $ 4.5 $ 82
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films in the comparable weekend have averaged $142 million total, ranking 17th of 52 weeks. Last year this weekend’s total was $115 million, and the same weekend in 2010 was $157 million. This Friday-Sunday is looking like a soft $103 million, down 11% from this weekend last year but down 28% from an “average” comparable weekend.
This Weekend Last Two Years
Come back throughout the weekend to see how the movies actually perform. Saturday morning we will have an early look at how the weekend is shaping up, on Sunday we will have initial studio estimates (based on Friday and Saturday actuals), and Monday we will have the final weekend numbers.
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